Brewers' 2 Hole: The Gomez Problem

Well, it's May 1st, and with one month of the season gone the Brewers are, as (we should have) expected, languishing with an NL Mediocre division-defining 13-13 record. We've been asked to be patient: for the lineup to get back in tact (it is), for the pitching staff to get back in tact (Zack Greinke returns Wednesday) and for new manager Ron Roenicke to get a feel for his players, what their strengths are, and how to most effectively use them.

It is with this third point that we have become increasingly impatient. With one sixth of the season gone, it is now time for Ron to get over the getting-to-know-you phase and start managing his lineup in a more effective way. Yes, we know that we've just recently finally gotten Corey Hart back, and that the ace of the staff has yet to make his 2011 debut, but this team has too much talent and, more importantly, too much invested in this one year to be content with a 13-13 record entering May.

The most frustrating change that hasn't yet been made is Roenicke's stubborn refusal to use anyone other than the mercurial Carlos Gomez in the important second spot in the lineup. Even without stats, even the most casual Brewers fan who has watched games this year can tell you that even though Gomez has shown flashes of compentence (see the Brewers' first series against the woeful Astros, whom the Brewers are, as I write this, threatening to lose another series to), he often makes up for the occasional lapse in terrible-ness by being picked off of first, running his teammate off the bases, or getting thrown out trying to stretch a double into a triple.

But complaining about a problem means nothing if you don't present your own alternatives. So here, with statistical analysis to back it up, are three alternatives, three of which even allow Roenicke to keep his pet in the lineup.

1) Jonathan Lucroy at 2, Carlos Gomez to 8
Lucroy has only been back for a couple weeks, but he already looks to be in mid-season form, hitting .333 with a .400 on-base percentage through 12 games. Lucroy appears to be enjoying something like the opposite of a sophomore slump in his second season as the Brewers' primary catcher, and appears to be forcing his manager to consider moving him up out of the 8th spot of the lineup.

One of the drawbacks to this option is that Lucroy can't play every day, and as we've seen (anyone remember Ned Yost stubbornly insisting that the left fielder always batted third, even if that meant slotting Laynce Nix in the lineup's most important spot?), major league managers are loathe to make any major changes to their lineups on a regular basis. The fragile egos of these 20-40 year old men just can't handle that kind of stress, I guess. However, even if Roenicke were to hit his catcher second, regardless of who's name he was penciling onto the lineup card, it would be a huge boost over what Gomez has provided at the 2 spot. Here's the production from the 2 hole, where Gomez has started a majority of the team's games, and the 8th spot, which has been occupied by the catcher in almost every game this season:

2nd: .250 BA, .291 OBP, 2 HR, 11 RBI, 6 SB
8th: .297 BA, .369 OBP, 2 HR, 9 RBI, 0 SB

The Brewers would lose the threat of the stolen base in this scenario, but the nearly 80 points of on base percentage gained would more than make up for Lucroy's lack of aggressiveness on the basepaths.

2) Corey Hart
This is the most obvious alternative, and one that may yet be the plan after Corey has had time to settle in, but my patience with The Gomez Problem has run out, and I refuse to wait another day. We already know what Corey can do, as he hit 31 HR and was an All-Star starter last year hitting in the 2 hole. Here's last year's production from that spot last year, to compare to this year's (keep in mind, these stats are from a full year, while this year's were from only 26 games):

2nd: .268 BA, .314 OBP, 19 HR, 83 RBI

Also keep in mind that these stats have been brought down by the fact that Hart shared this spot with Gomez in 26 games last season.

3) Nyjer Morgan
Obviously, Morgan is currently on the 15-day disabled list, and if he has remained healthy, perhaps he would have already supplanted Gomez as the starting center fielder and the guy at the 2nd spot. But Morgan was hitting .455 with a .500 on base percentage before his injury.

With the Brewers now under .500 as I conclude writing this, the time to make these changes needs to be now, before they slowly, quietly slide out of the race.