Short circuit: What happened to Jean?

A rare image of Yun-E6 successfully making a catch

Turn back the clock to the All-Star break in July 2013. The Brewers are buried near the bottom of the National League standings after slogging through one of the worst months in franchise history in May, and what was perceived to be a fringe contender in the preseason has been all but eliminated by the All-Star break. Ryan Braun is facing a suspension that would end an already disappointing, injury-riddled season for the disgraced slugger. The Brewers rotation of first basemen includes players with experience at every single position except first base, and none of them can hit. Yuniesky Betancourt is starting on a regular basis.

It was only the worst of times. But there was one reason for hope: Jean Segura, the light-hitting shortstop prospect that came over as the centerpiece of the deal that sent fan-favorite Zack Greinke to the Angels, is ripping the league apart. Elected to the NL All-Star game in his first full season, Segura has an incredible .325/.363/.487 slash line, and is pushing Troy Tulowitzki for the yearly title of best shortstop in the National League. Not only that, but he's been a revelation at shortstop, a position most scouts gave him little chance to stick at. 

Now bring it back to the present. Flip the script on absolutely everything (except the disappointing first base carousel). The Brewers are in first place, but Segura has fallen off a cliff. The stellar defense is still there, but with roughly a full season's worth of plate appearances since the All-Star break last year, the offensive numbers are close to replacement level (his OPS of .589 ranks 70th out of 72 National League qualifiers, inching out fellow shortstop perma-slumpers Everth Cabrera and Zack Cosart). So what happened, who's the real Jean, and will we ever see the production that led to his All-Star nomination again? 

I hope you SOBs are ready for some hard-core #analysis. All stats from Baseball Reference.

A very common image of Seggy making the impossible happen

So what are we looking at here? Let's break it down:

• Obviously, his power numbers are down. He had nearly as many extra-base hits in just under 60% of the at-bats in the first half of 2013 vs. the year since. A lot of that is from the sharp drop off in home runs, but I think that everyone realized, even while he was doing it, that it was a bit fluky. He never hit for much power in the Minors (67.5 AB/HR!), so no real surprise there. Overall, his XBH% is down from 8.1% to 5.3%, but you don't necessarily need a ton of power from a shortstop with a glove like Jean's.
• His K/BB ratio has shot way up, from 2.82 during his All-Star first half last year to 4.14 since. This is an issue since the two natural places to slot him in the lineup, second or eighth, both need to be putting the ball in play (to get on base/move the leadoff runner for the RBI guys behind and to move runners and turn the lineup over in front of the pitcher, respectively). Segura is a light hitter that needs to find more plate discipline if he's going to get on base enough to be a contributor offensively. His speed will help him beat out infield hits, but only if he puts the bat on the ball.
• The GIDP numbers are actually down slightly, which really surprised me, as it feels like he's been grounding out a ton. But when you consider he's spent the vast majority of the year hitting behind either Mark Reynolds, one of the great three-true-outcomes hitters of our time, or the XBH-or-K machine Carlos Gomez, it explains why his GIDP number haven't risen so sharply, as it's tough to hit into a double play when there's no one on first. Certainly when the opportunity has been presented him, he's been up to the task.

Don't expect to see a ton more of this

So who's the real Jean Segura? I think the ceiling is somewhere in the middle, and the floor is about where he's at right now. The ZiPS projection for the rest of the season for Jean is relatively bullish, offering a .267/.303/.386 line. I think this is more in line with what we should expect from Jean's career going forward. Will he ever be the guy with an OPS of .850 again? No, probably not. His BABIP (batting average on balls in play) over the first half of last year was a very high .349 (league average is around .300), so he was getting very lucky. Since, it's around .270, but whether that's because he's gotten unlucky or because he just doesn't hit the ball very hard is up for debate. His home run per fly ball rate in the first part of last year was obviously extremely high, and I don't think you should ever expect to see him hit double digit home runs again in his career. Major league pitchers have made their adjustments to him, and he has yet to push back on that. Eventually, I think you'll see Seggy push his offensive numbers back to around league average for shortstops, and his defense will continue to make him an above average player at a premium position. 

Eating Utensil Power Rankings

1) Fork

The clear gold standard in the eating utensil world is the fork, a true all star that is an absolute necessity at any civilized place setting. Not only is it's skewering ability top-notch with it's 3-4 prongs, it can also function as a rough replacement for a knife or spoon in most occasions, making it's versatility second to none. If you need proof, go buy a combo-pack of plastic utensils for your next picnic, business lunch or other community event at which food will be served. I guarantee you'll be left with 48 spoons, 38 knives and 2 forks some weirdo probably used and then replaced.

2) Steak Knife

While the side of your fork can handle a lot, sometimes your need something sharp and serrated. The classic knife-and-fork combo comes in with the two top spots on our list, which should come as a surprise to no one. Of course, most of the time, the steak knife is completely dependent on the fork to even work properly, giving it a slight bump down and showing just how wide the gap is between the fork and the rest of the field. 

3) Chopsticks

The fork of the Asian world can't be ignored in the world of eating utensils, even if it's use in the United States is limited to Chinese takeout and really, really cool hipsters. It's entirely possible it deserves a spot closer to the legendary fork, but I have never been able to figure out how to use them properly and, while chopsticks are certainly an effective and elegant method for delivering food from your bowl or plate to your mouth, I'm of the opinion that accessibility and ease of use factor in to these rankings. It should be noted also that the laws governing the etiquette of chopstick use are long, convoluted and at times contradictory, so if you find yourself at a traditional Asian dinner, there's a pretty decent chance you'll at some point end up accidentally offending someone.

4) Skewer

The skewer is basically just one chopstick that's had it's point whittled to a more deadly point to make stabbing and stacking your food easier. It is of note that while chopsticks could theoretically be used as a skewer in a pinch, the practice is generally frowned upon as at best rude and at worst symbolic of death. Skewers are a staple of any legitimate barbeque, and if you happen to find one loaded with nothing but vegetables, do your friends and family a favor and throw some steak on that bad boy.

5) Spork

Veterans of Yum! restaurants KFC and Taco Bell are very familiar with the spork, popular among weird high school dorks who play Magic: The Gathering and wearing black t-shirts from Hot Topic (read: me 12 years ago). Odd teenage obsessions aside, the spork is actually a fairly useful utensil, though it's ability to skewer with its stubby little prongs is limited at best.

6) Tongs

While usually not used to actually transport food from your plate to your mouth, tongs are nonetheless an absolutely indispensable eating utensil, especially when grilling outdoors. You could use a fork to move meat onto and off of the grill, and turn sausages for maximum flavor, but you run the risk of losing valuable juices, and dripping onto your coals, which can hamper your ability to cook going forward. If you're not using tongs to grill, you're wrong. 

7) Spoon

This ranking may be lower than you'd expect for one of the three staples of western cutlery, but let's be honest about it. The spoon is pretty useless. Unless you're getting down with some soup or delicious, delicious chili, everyone the spoon can do a fork can do just as well. Like the crab cracker below, the spoon is essential at times, but it's lack of versatility hurts its ranking.

8) Crab Cracker

This ranking reflects the lack of versatility the crab cracker brings to the table, as it really serves only to...well, crack crabs. In that endeavor, however, it is uniquely suited to thrive, and any attempt to get inside a crab or lobster's shell to get at the delicious meat inside is sure to be made significantly more difficult should you find yourself lacking this unique utensil.

9) Butter Knife

There's really very little reason for the butter knife to exist, as all of its uses are performed very capably by other utensils with more versatility. There is nothing a butter knife does that a steak knife doesn't do better, including cutting through butter, which makes this utensil both useless and poorly named.

10)  Sporf

Used primarily by the thru-hiker community and probably other nerds, the sporf supposedly combined the features of a fork, spoon and knife into one utensil. An ambitious attempt on someone's part to really streamline the Western cutlery game, in practice it probably doesn't do anything particularly well, and looks like a potential injury hazard as well. I would recommend avoiding it unless you plan on taking on the Appalachian Trail.

11) Trongs

Trongs, pictured to the right, are the solution to a non-problem, protecting your fingers from the dangers of barbeque and buffalo sauce while eating ribs and chicken wings. The diabolical creators of this preposterous device live only to cut into the the profits of our country's many fine wet-nap producers, and I for one won't stand for it. Anyone caught using trongs without a valid medical excuse should be put on trial for crimes against humanity. Are you kidding me? Get real with this stuff.