Fun Christmas Trivia with Travis

Well the holidays can be a real stressful time, huh? Long trips, planning events and dealing with extended family can be a tall task, not to mention the hustle and bustle of Christmas shopping and maintaining your budget (and your waistline! wink wink) as we head into a new year. Boy, wouldn't it be nice to take a step back for a minute, relax* and think about some fun Christmas trivia?

Well I'm here to help, pals. With the holiday spirit in mind I, your intermittent Wisconsin sports and entertainment blogger, have compiled a couple of amusing Christmas-themed facts, which you can use to impress your friends at your next ugly sweater party. Ho ho ho!

Gingerbread is a below average treat

1) Gingerbread isn't that good. On a desserts scale of 1-10, where one is black licorice and ten is Dairy Queen Ice Cream Cake (the indisputable king of cakes and of sweets in general), gingerbread cookies are about a three. If you are at a Christmas party with a dessert table, the gingerbread cookies are almost certainly in the bottom half of your available options.

2) 'Xmas' is not a mean-spirited abbreviation of Christmas invented by the secular world to insult Christians and "take the Christ out of Christmas." The X comes from the first letter of the Greek word for Christ, 'chi', which is represented by a symbol very similar to the letter X. If you are a Christian who is offended by Xmas you should not be, and if you are a non-Christian who intends offense by it, you are doing a very bad job and should explore other options. For instance, you could try not being a dick.

3) The best Christmas movie is Elf. Other Christmas movies that are good include Merry Christmas, Charlie Brown, Home Alone, Dr. Suess' How The Grinch Stole Chirstmas! (1966 animated version only), National Lampoon's Christmas Vacation and Mickey's Christmas Carol. The preceding list is not comprehensive.

4) Die Hard would be on the preceding list if it were a Christmas movie, but it is not.

5) The answer to "Is The Nightmare Before Christmas a Christmas movie or a Halloween movie?" is yes.

This is not a magical "consent not
required" plant. 

6) If you kiss an unwilling member of the opposite sex but you held mistletoe above their head first, you have still committed fourth degree sexual assault. If you do this to your spouse or significant other, you have committed being adorable, and it is advised that your partner put a ring on it, should they have failed to do so previously.

7) The Best Christmas song is "Baby, It's Cold Outside". This is tied to the fact that Elf is the best Christmas movie. It is strongly advised to maintain a cohesive Christmas entertainment experience.

8) It is appropriate to listen to Christmas music at any time from December 23-December 26, and at any and all holiday themed events and gatherings during the months of December and January. It is not advisable to play Christmas music at any other time.

9) If you are a non-Christian who is offended when a stranger wishes you a "Merry Christmas" while you are out in public during the Christmas season, an appropriate response would be for you to shut up.

10) The year that a child transitions from being disappointed about receiving clothes for Christmas (As opposed to toys, not nothing. Be grateful, kids.) to being glad is one of the earliest indicators of the onset of adulthood, and should be met with praise.

11) The celebration of Christmas on December 25th likely has it's origins in pagan holidays celebrating the winter solstice. The actual birth of Christ was probably closer to nobody cares at all, just eat the damn cookies.

Santa was invented in the 1930s by Coca-Cola to sell soda or
he really exists if there are children present.^

12) Santa Claus does not exist, except in our collective imaginations. The men dressed as Santa Claus at malls and at holiday events are paid actors or volunteers. However, it is strictly forbidden to reveal this fact to any child under the age of 12. To do so, even accidentally, is tantamount to child abuse. It is best to pretend that Santa Claus is real if you even suspect there might be a child within a two mile radius.

13) The correct main dish for Christmas dinner is glazed ham. The turkey was for Thanksgiving, and you should be saving your steak and shrimp for next week's New Year's Day party. If you are a vegetarian, you are not a vegetarian on Christmas.

14) The earliest you are allowed to put up Christmas lights and decorations is the day after Thanksgiving. They may remain up until you damn well feel like taking them down because it's really cold outside and you're kind of tired, so everyone just chill out already. In colder climates, it is permissible to simply wait until Easter rolls around and replace all decorations at that time, however lights may not be activated after the new year.

15) Although poinsettias have a bad rap, they are in fact only mildly toxic to household pets and contact with the traditional Christmastime plant rarely requires medical attention. Also, just don't put your plants on the floor and train your pets to stay off of tables and you won't have a problem, will you? Don't be lazy pet owner.

*Relax™ used with permission of Aaron Rodgers, Jason Wilde and 540 ESPN
^Neither of these claims is true (unless there are children present)

How to cope with this week: A guide for Brewers fans

The Brewers are currently in the midst of a harrowing six game stretch that sees them play the Cardinals and the Pirates on the road, a trip that will almost assuredly decide their playoff fate and most likely the fate of the soul of baseball itself. It's started off well with a very Cardinals 3-2 extra innings win when a bloop single from a September call up scored Gomez, who had just stolen two bases of off an apparently uninterested Yadier Molina. I know many Brewers fans are at their wit's end after the Brewers' disastrous tumble from the division lead to third in the wild card race, so here's a handy guide on how to cope as you take in these final 11 games.

1) Drink a lot: There's only one game left on the Brewers schedule that would conflict with your normal 9-5 work schedule (a ghastly 11:35 am start against the Reds next Thursday), so there's really no reason why you wouldn't be able to have a healthy buzz on before the singer drops the the final note on "brave" every day. I recommend avoiding  Budweiser and Yuengling products at all costs, as well as anything containing the words "Steel City" to avoid accidentally causing the baseball gods to believe you're supporting the Cards or Bucs. Should you be worried about having a hangover at work the following morning, a good rule of thumb is to limit yourself to one beer for every two innings*. Of course a nice, frosty Miller Lite would be ideal, but if you're desperate, you can just dump whatever you have into one of the souvenir margarita mugs your girlfriend just needs to have at every game you drag her to.

*double this rate for any inning in which K-Rod appears

2) Watch this video: Over and over.

3) Switch games:  Should the tide of play seem to be inexorably turned against the Crew, it is permisible at this stage of the season to switch your MLB.tv feed to the Pirates game, to instead root for their opponent. With just two weeks to play, a Pirates loss counts just as much as a Brewers win. Should you find yourself in this scenario during the Pirates series, simply switch to the Yankees feed and laugh at the incessant slobbering over Derek Jeter's shambling corpse. Under no circumstances should you switch to the Cubs game, lest you fill yourself with dread at the thought of facing a decade of Soler-Baez-Rizzo-Castoooooooh my god we're screwed.

4) Remain calm and remember it's just a game: LOL just kidding, panic.

Short circuit: What happened to Jean?

A rare image of Yun-E6 successfully making a catch

Turn back the clock to the All-Star break in July 2013. The Brewers are buried near the bottom of the National League standings after slogging through one of the worst months in franchise history in May, and what was perceived to be a fringe contender in the preseason has been all but eliminated by the All-Star break. Ryan Braun is facing a suspension that would end an already disappointing, injury-riddled season for the disgraced slugger. The Brewers rotation of first basemen includes players with experience at every single position except first base, and none of them can hit. Yuniesky Betancourt is starting on a regular basis.

It was only the worst of times. But there was one reason for hope: Jean Segura, the light-hitting shortstop prospect that came over as the centerpiece of the deal that sent fan-favorite Zack Greinke to the Angels, is ripping the league apart. Elected to the NL All-Star game in his first full season, Segura has an incredible .325/.363/.487 slash line, and is pushing Troy Tulowitzki for the yearly title of best shortstop in the National League. Not only that, but he's been a revelation at shortstop, a position most scouts gave him little chance to stick at. 

Now bring it back to the present. Flip the script on absolutely everything (except the disappointing first base carousel). The Brewers are in first place, but Segura has fallen off a cliff. The stellar defense is still there, but with roughly a full season's worth of plate appearances since the All-Star break last year, the offensive numbers are close to replacement level (his OPS of .589 ranks 70th out of 72 National League qualifiers, inching out fellow shortstop perma-slumpers Everth Cabrera and Zack Cosart). So what happened, who's the real Jean, and will we ever see the production that led to his All-Star nomination again? 

I hope you SOBs are ready for some hard-core #analysis. All stats from Baseball Reference.

A very common image of Seggy making the impossible happen

So what are we looking at here? Let's break it down:

• Obviously, his power numbers are down. He had nearly as many extra-base hits in just under 60% of the at-bats in the first half of 2013 vs. the year since. A lot of that is from the sharp drop off in home runs, but I think that everyone realized, even while he was doing it, that it was a bit fluky. He never hit for much power in the Minors (67.5 AB/HR!), so no real surprise there. Overall, his XBH% is down from 8.1% to 5.3%, but you don't necessarily need a ton of power from a shortstop with a glove like Jean's.
• His K/BB ratio has shot way up, from 2.82 during his All-Star first half last year to 4.14 since. This is an issue since the two natural places to slot him in the lineup, second or eighth, both need to be putting the ball in play (to get on base/move the leadoff runner for the RBI guys behind and to move runners and turn the lineup over in front of the pitcher, respectively). Segura is a light hitter that needs to find more plate discipline if he's going to get on base enough to be a contributor offensively. His speed will help him beat out infield hits, but only if he puts the bat on the ball.
• The GIDP numbers are actually down slightly, which really surprised me, as it feels like he's been grounding out a ton. But when you consider he's spent the vast majority of the year hitting behind either Mark Reynolds, one of the great three-true-outcomes hitters of our time, or the XBH-or-K machine Carlos Gomez, it explains why his GIDP number haven't risen so sharply, as it's tough to hit into a double play when there's no one on first. Certainly when the opportunity has been presented him, he's been up to the task.

Don't expect to see a ton more of this

So who's the real Jean Segura? I think the ceiling is somewhere in the middle, and the floor is about where he's at right now. The ZiPS projection for the rest of the season for Jean is relatively bullish, offering a .267/.303/.386 line. I think this is more in line with what we should expect from Jean's career going forward. Will he ever be the guy with an OPS of .850 again? No, probably not. His BABIP (batting average on balls in play) over the first half of last year was a very high .349 (league average is around .300), so he was getting very lucky. Since, it's around .270, but whether that's because he's gotten unlucky or because he just doesn't hit the ball very hard is up for debate. His home run per fly ball rate in the first part of last year was obviously extremely high, and I don't think you should ever expect to see him hit double digit home runs again in his career. Major league pitchers have made their adjustments to him, and he has yet to push back on that. Eventually, I think you'll see Seggy push his offensive numbers back to around league average for shortstops, and his defense will continue to make him an above average player at a premium position. 

Eating Utensil Power Rankings

1) Fork

The clear gold standard in the eating utensil world is the fork, a true all star that is an absolute necessity at any civilized place setting. Not only is it's skewering ability top-notch with it's 3-4 prongs, it can also function as a rough replacement for a knife or spoon in most occasions, making it's versatility second to none. If you need proof, go buy a combo-pack of plastic utensils for your next picnic, business lunch or other community event at which food will be served. I guarantee you'll be left with 48 spoons, 38 knives and 2 forks some weirdo probably used and then replaced.

2) Steak Knife

While the side of your fork can handle a lot, sometimes your need something sharp and serrated. The classic knife-and-fork combo comes in with the two top spots on our list, which should come as a surprise to no one. Of course, most of the time, the steak knife is completely dependent on the fork to even work properly, giving it a slight bump down and showing just how wide the gap is between the fork and the rest of the field. 

3) Chopsticks

The fork of the Asian world can't be ignored in the world of eating utensils, even if it's use in the United States is limited to Chinese takeout and really, really cool hipsters. It's entirely possible it deserves a spot closer to the legendary fork, but I have never been able to figure out how to use them properly and, while chopsticks are certainly an effective and elegant method for delivering food from your bowl or plate to your mouth, I'm of the opinion that accessibility and ease of use factor in to these rankings. It should be noted also that the laws governing the etiquette of chopstick use are long, convoluted and at times contradictory, so if you find yourself at a traditional Asian dinner, there's a pretty decent chance you'll at some point end up accidentally offending someone.

4) Skewer

The skewer is basically just one chopstick that's had it's point whittled to a more deadly point to make stabbing and stacking your food easier. It is of note that while chopsticks could theoretically be used as a skewer in a pinch, the practice is generally frowned upon as at best rude and at worst symbolic of death. Skewers are a staple of any legitimate barbeque, and if you happen to find one loaded with nothing but vegetables, do your friends and family a favor and throw some steak on that bad boy.

5) Spork

Veterans of Yum! restaurants KFC and Taco Bell are very familiar with the spork, popular among weird high school dorks who play Magic: The Gathering and wearing black t-shirts from Hot Topic (read: me 12 years ago). Odd teenage obsessions aside, the spork is actually a fairly useful utensil, though it's ability to skewer with its stubby little prongs is limited at best.

6) Tongs

While usually not used to actually transport food from your plate to your mouth, tongs are nonetheless an absolutely indispensable eating utensil, especially when grilling outdoors. You could use a fork to move meat onto and off of the grill, and turn sausages for maximum flavor, but you run the risk of losing valuable juices, and dripping onto your coals, which can hamper your ability to cook going forward. If you're not using tongs to grill, you're wrong. 

7) Spoon

This ranking may be lower than you'd expect for one of the three staples of western cutlery, but let's be honest about it. The spoon is pretty useless. Unless you're getting down with some soup or delicious, delicious chili, everyone the spoon can do a fork can do just as well. Like the crab cracker below, the spoon is essential at times, but it's lack of versatility hurts its ranking.

8) Crab Cracker

This ranking reflects the lack of versatility the crab cracker brings to the table, as it really serves only to...well, crack crabs. In that endeavor, however, it is uniquely suited to thrive, and any attempt to get inside a crab or lobster's shell to get at the delicious meat inside is sure to be made significantly more difficult should you find yourself lacking this unique utensil.

9) Butter Knife

There's really very little reason for the butter knife to exist, as all of its uses are performed very capably by other utensils with more versatility. There is nothing a butter knife does that a steak knife doesn't do better, including cutting through butter, which makes this utensil both useless and poorly named.

10)  Sporf

Used primarily by the thru-hiker community and probably other nerds, the sporf supposedly combined the features of a fork, spoon and knife into one utensil. An ambitious attempt on someone's part to really streamline the Western cutlery game, in practice it probably doesn't do anything particularly well, and looks like a potential injury hazard as well. I would recommend avoiding it unless you plan on taking on the Appalachian Trail.

11) Trongs

Trongs, pictured to the right, are the solution to a non-problem, protecting your fingers from the dangers of barbeque and buffalo sauce while eating ribs and chicken wings. The diabolical creators of this preposterous device live only to cut into the the profits of our country's many fine wet-nap producers, and I for one won't stand for it. Anyone caught using trongs without a valid medical excuse should be put on trial for crimes against humanity. Are you kidding me? Get real with this stuff.

The Brewers five biggest story lines for the second half

First post in a while. Whoops. Life's been unreal busy. HERE WE GO. The Brewers enter the second half tonight with a slim one game lead after watching the cushy lead they enjoyed most of the way evaporate during a disastrous July. Can they hold on to reach the playoffs for the third time in seven years? Here's the five biggest story lines to follow as we close in on October:

1) Jean Segura This has absolutely zero to do with the game of baseball. If you haven't already heard, Jean rejoined the team Thursday after spending the last week in his native Dominican Republic following the devastating loss of his nine-month-old son to an unspecified illness. He's said that he's ready to play, that he needs to get back into the routine to help him cope and move on with his life, but certainly no one could blame him if he struggles for a bit as his thoughts will be elsewhere. It will be interesting to see what kind of reception he gets in Washington when the Brewers return to action against the Nationals on Friday, hopefully Nats Nation will rise to the occasion and give the kind a hand. I expect the ovation he'll receive when the Brewers return home next Monday will be thunderous.

It's impossible to imagine the pain Jean is going through at this time. Here's hoping Jean goes off in the second half, popping off a couple of moonshots aimed straight up to the heavens for his son to catch. We're all rooting for you, Jean. RIP Janniel.

2) Jimmy Nelson In his two starts this season, Jimmy's been pretty good against a surprisingly powerful Marlins offense and awful against a surprisingly terrible Cardinals offense. The move to call him up and stick him in the rotation is one the Brewers won't likely backtrack on unless he really struggles for an extended period, so for better or worse, the Brewers chances of reaching the postseason this season are in large part tied to the 25-year-old righthander with 20 career IP in the majors under his belt (barring any monumentally stupid deadline moves moves). 

As has been belabored here and all over the Brewers internet, however, his total domination of the PCL this year shows that he had little left to learn there, and he's either ready to be a major league contributor now, or he never will be. There will be more bumps in the road like Saturday's debacle against St. Louis, but I expect his to do more good than harm down the stretch. 

Yes, please.

3) The Trade Deadline Obviously, we don't know how just how big of story this will be, because we don't know what DM has planned, but you can pretty much bank on the Brewers doing something to gear up for the stretch run -- it would be even more surprising to see them stand pat. Remember that in both years the Brewers have made the playoffs this century, Melvin pulled off a major trade in June to improve his team (C.C. Sabathia in 2008 and Francisco Rodriguez in 2011, not to mention the off-season trade for Zack Grienke). Melvin has been insistent that he doesn't plan to make any significant moves, which is a lie you can basically write down in your calendar in pen that he's going to make every July.

The most glaring needs for the Brewers are a left-handed power bat and a right-handed reliever, the latter concern intensified with their two best RHP relievers, Thornburg and Henderson, on the shelf. The Brewers don't have a ton of talent to offer in a potential trade, partly due to those aforementioned trades and partly due to several years of below average returns from the draft, but expect Melvin to move on something in the neighborhood of a Seth Smith or a Joaquin Benoit, both of the San Diego Padres. I'm still crossing my fingers hoping he'll do something to deal with his first base problem, but I'm not holding my breath. 

4) The September Schedule One of the greatest sports schedule reforms of our lives has been MLB's emphasis on stuffing September full of inter-divisional games. The Brewers, Reds and Cardinals will all face each other 13 or 14 times in the season's final month, and if you want to throw the Pirates into the mix, the Brewers have a big stretch of nine straight road games against St. Louis, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh right in the middle of the month that will almost certainly decide their post-season fate. If at any point anyone needs to contact me in September, don't. I'll be an absolute mess. Prepare your butts, Brewers fans.

5) Will The Bullpen Break? One of the Brewers' surprise strengths throughout much of the first half, the bullpen really started to show some cracks in July, due to a multitude of factors, including the injuries to Henderson and Thornburg, the strain of playing a man short while they dragged the Wei-Chung Wang nonsense out, and just some expected regression from an absolutely preposterous start. Unfortunately, Henderson and Thornburg remain without timetables for their returns, but the Wei-Chung Wang situation seems to finally have worked itself out after he was DL'd presumably at least until rosters expand on September 1st (nice bit of work there, Brewers medical staff). If the Brewers are going to stay in the hunt, their going to need K-Rod, The Fresh Prince, Zack Duke et. al to continue their impressive seasons.   

MLB Halfway Hardware and Second Half Predictions

The Brewers have hit the halfway point, and at 49-32 have the best record after 81 games in franchise history. Certainly this is good news, but it's also important to note that the previous record holders (George Bamberger's 1979 team and Ned Yost's 2007 team were both 47-34) both failed to reach the playoffs, so the job isn't done. With the best record in the National League and a 5.5 game lead over the second place Cardinals, however, it certainly is hard to imagine how this team could manage not to at least grab a wild card spot now. Here's how I'm handing out the hardware for the Crew through the official halfway point:

Brewers MVP: Jonathan Lucroy

This is an obvious choice. Lucroy leads the team in batting average, on-base percentage and OPS, and is among the team leaders in RBI and games played (the latter very impressive for a catcher). His WAR of 3.8 is first on the team and third in the National League.

With apologies to: Carlos Gomez, Kyle Lohse

Brewers Cy Young: Lohse

This one is a tough one, but I'll lean toward Lohse, who has emerged as the stopper on a team that lacks a true "ace". He's posted a quality start in 12 out 16 appearances, and he's also the team leader in innings pitched, an important stat for a team with a bullpen handcuffed to Wei-Chung Wang that separates him from Yovani Gallardo. He is tied with Wily Peralta for the team lead in ERA and wins, the latter which ranks them both a tied for third in the National League.

With apologies to: Gallardo, Peralta, Will Smith

Brewers Newcomer of the Year: Will Smith and Zach Duke

The Fresh Prince and his Slider of Death have been absolutely dominant all year, as has Pirate-zombie Duke. You could also just name this award the Rolaids relief pitcher award but it would look the same.. The Brewers pair of dominant lefties sport ERAs of 1.43 and 1.44 respectively, and both have K/9 rates over 11. Smith has been used a bit more in higher leverage situations (he has 19 holds to Duke's 7), but Duke's been much stingier with the free passes (5 to Smith's 16).

With apologies to: No one. This isn't close, sorry Mark Reynolds.

Now I'm going to share here my preseason picks here to see how I'm doing so far, and make any mid-season adjustments I feel are necessary. If that's cheating then shut up it's my blog I do what I want with it.

Pictured: The Rays 2014 Season

AL East:

1) Tampa Bay

2) Baltimore

3) Boston

4) New York

5) Toronto

Grade: F

This is basically the exact opposite of what's happened. I've got Baltimore in the right spot, but I flipped the first and last place teams. My Tampa Bay predictions get worse, stay tuned.

Revised:

1) Baltimore

2) Toronto

3) New York

4) Boston

5) Tampa Bay

A lot of media outlets are high on the Yankees' chances to take this suddenly very weak division, which makes since because media outlets always love the Yankees. The sport a dismal -34 run differential, however, that is good for 7th worst in the majors, so I'm not sold that they'll be able to climb back into the race. If Toronto can find a top-tier pitcher to bolster their rotation, I think they've got a shot to stave off the Orioles.

AL Central:

1) Cleveland

2) Kansas City

3) Detroit

4) Chicago

5) Minnesota

Grade: B-. This looked a lot better a week ago before the Tigers ripped off seven straight while the Royals and Indians struggled.

Revised:

1) Detroit

2) Kansas City

3) Cleveland

4) Chicago

5) Minnesota

It looks like we're getting status quo again in the Central. The Royals are improved and could catch the Tigers, but we've been saying that for years and Detroit has postseason experience that will carry them through to a fourth straight division title.

AL West:

1) Oakland

2) Los Angeles*

3) Seattle*

4) Texas

5) Houston

Grade: A+. #NailedIt

No Revisions. I saw the Texas collapse coming a mile away, and Seattle has obviously made some splashy improvements to their offense. I had both wild cards coming out of this division, and that remains the call as well: Oakland, Los Angeles and Seattle have the three best run differentials in all of baseball.

That smile says, "I'm better than you,
 and I know it."

AL Awards:

MVP: Mike Trout, LAA

Cy Young: David Price, TB

ROY: Yordano Ventura, KC

Grade: C. Trout is running away with the MVP, but Price has been good-but-not-great. Ventura is probably fourth in a stacked AL Rookie of the Year race behind Masahiro Tanaka of the Yankees, Jose Abreu of the White Sox and George Springer of the Astros.

Revisions:

MVP: Trout

Cy Young: Felix Hernandez, SEA

ROY: Tanaka

I don't want to hear about Josh Donaldson or Edwin Encarnacion, so just stop. Trout is the best baseball player alive and it isn't close. Tanaka is not only your clear favorite for Rookie of the Year, he's also neck and neck with King Felix for the Cy Young.

NL East:

1) Washington

2) Atlanta

3) Miami

4) New York

5) Philadelphia

Grade: A. But for a Philly win and a New York loss last night, I nailed this one too. I didn't necessarily think the Marlins would be a .500 team without Jose Fernandez, but I'll take it anyway.

No Revisions. I like what I've done here. The first two divisions were rough, but I'm starting to heat up.

NL Central:

1) St. Louis

2) Milwaukee*

3) Cincinnati

4) Pittsburgh

5) Chicago

Grade: B+. I got killed in the preseason for being a "homer" and putting the Crew in second place and giving them a wild card spot. Turns out I did get that wrong, but I'm totally okay with that. Other than that, I nailed this. I definitely saw the regression coming from the Pirates, and I didn't think Cincinnati would be able to score as easily with the loss of Choo.

No Revisions. Unfortunately, I do see the Cardinals getting hot at some point and catching the Crew, despite my undying allegiance to the Brewers and the ever-burning hatred that rages on in my heart for the Cardinals. The mere fact that the Cardinals sent a scout to watch David Price this week caused me to uncontrollably wet myself with terror. I still like Milwaukee for a wild card, obviously.

NL West:

1) Los Angeles

2) Arizona*

3) San Fransisco

4) San Diego

5) Colorado

Grade: C-. Everything looks pretty good, except what in the blue hell happened to the Diamondbacks? I picked them for a wild card spot, and instead they're buried in the cellar with the worst run differential in the league.

Revisions:

1) Los Angeles

2) San Fransisco

3) Colorado

4) Arizona

5) San Diego

Colorado has surprised with their bats, even considering the airy confines of Coors Field. Obviously, I'm also dropping the D-Backs toward the bottom, though I have a feeling they'll at least catch San Diego and their historically bad offense.

NL Awards:

MVP: Paul Goldschmidt, ARI

Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw, LAD

ROY: Archie Bradley, ARI

Grade: D. Goldschmidt has been fine but he's on a last place team, and Bradley has yet to make an appearance in the bigs this year. Kershaw missed some time and doesn't have the eye-popping ERA of Cueto, but I suspect his track record, the no-hitter, his team's performance and his presence in the Los Angeles market keeps him in the race.

Revisions:

MVP: Jonathan Lucroy, MIL

Cy Young: Kershaw

ROY: Billy Hamilton, CIN

Troy Tulowitzki has obviously been on an absolute tear and probably deserves the award, but the writers are traditionally loathe to hand out the MVP hardware to a guy on a team that's not at least in contention for a playoff spot (The Rox currently sit at 35-44, 7.5 games out of the second wild card spot). Plus, whatever go Brewers and it would make me smile a lot to see Luc win the award the same year my grandmother, who absolutely hated him for no reason, passed away. I didn't believe in the Billy Hamilton hype, but after a rough April he's separated himself from a sparce NL rookie field. With apologies to Jonny Cueto and (gag) Adam Wainwright, Kershaw is stil the best pitcher on the planet.

It says here Cespedes and the A's are your World Champions

Playoffs:

National League

Wild Cards: Milwaukee over Arizona

Divisional Round: Dodgers over Milwaukee, Washington over St. Louis

Championship: Dodgers over Washington

Revisions:

Wild Cards: Milwaukee over San Fransisco

Divisional Round: Dodgers over Milwaukee, St. Louis over Washington

Championship: Dodgers over St. Louis

American League

Wild Cards: Los Angeles over Seattle

Divisional Round: Tampa Bay over Los Angeles, Oakland over Cleveland

Championship: Tampa Bay over Oakland

Revisions:

Wild Cards: Los Angeles over Seattle

Divisional Round:  Los Angeles over Baltimore, Oakland over Detroit

Championship: Oakland over Los Angeles

World Series

Tampa Bay over Los Angeles in 7

Revision:

Oakland over Los Angeles in 7

I told you it got worse with the Rays. Yes, that's right. The team I picked to win the World Series at the beginning of the year has the worst record in all of baseball. To be fair, I wasn't alone, but it's still embarrassing. Going forward, I like the Athletics to raise the trophy this year. They've been absolutely dominant, with a run differential (+129!!!) that is more than twice that of the next best team.

Will Smith makes the obvious video, Brewers win the internet again

The absolute only problem I have with this is that it took until late June to make. This might be the most likable team I've ever rooted for, DESPITE the presence of Braun.

The Case for Jimmy Nelson

Since I haven't yet and things still haven't changed, as a blogger for the Brewers, I'm here to finally write my requisite WHERE IS JIMMY NELSON ASDSDFJK #FREEJIMMYNELSON post. We'll start with some blind player comparisons, and then launch into it, grabbing the numbers along the way.

Player A: 5.22 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 2.4 HR/9, 8.1 K/9, 2.8 BB/9

Player B: 5.58 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 1.1 HR/9, 5.0 K/0, 3.61 BB/9

Player C: 1.79 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 0.3 HR/9, 9.6 K/9, 2.7 BB/9

Player D: 4.66 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 0.6 HR/9, 8.8 K/9, 4.8 BB/9

(All stats from Baseball Reference, current through 6/24/14)

Let's start with the most easily recognizable line, and that's Player A, which is Marco Estrada in 2014. The obvious number that pops out at you is the 2.4 homers per nine, which gives him a staggering 24 dingers allowed this season, easily leading the league and already a career high for him. But the digging a little deeper, the second number you fall on is the 2.8 walks per nine, which is almost a full walk higher than either of his last two seasons. When taken together with the increased home run rate this year, you've got a guy who is surrendering more home runs, with more people on base. The advanced numbers bear this out: his FIP is actually higher than his ugly ERA, sitting at 5.77.

"Sir, you want home run? Home run? Free?"

Now, obviously Marco is struggling right now, and I do not think he's actually as bad as he's been this year. But we've identified a problem. Even taking into account that Marco wasn't all that bad until the middle of May (although his advanced numbers screamed out that this was coming*), obviously you can't have a guy who is passing out home runs like the little old Chinese lady in front of the Asian buffet hands out free samples of chicken teriyaki at the mall if you've got a better option waiting in the wings.

So the question becomes, do the Brewers have a better option? Enter Jimmy Nelson, whose stat line at AAA Nashville this season can be seen above (he's Player C). You know what that line says to me? It says, "I'm done here." Nelson is absolutely dominating the Pacific Coast League, and it's becoming quite clear that he's progressed as far as he's going to in the minors. He's cut his walk rate from a year ago in half, suggesting that he's fixed the one major flaw in his game that remained to be worked out. At this point, you're just wasting valuable innings in the ever-finite career of a pitcher who is already on the wrong side of 25.

"But Travis, don't most rookies struggle to make the transition to the major leagues? Will Nelson really be better than Estrada over the rest of the season? What about regression?"

@BuckysBCCo This isn't some sort of stupid blind faith thing. Wily Peralta was "ready" last year, too, and had a 5.58 ERA in first 3 months.

— J.P. Breen (@JP_Breen) June 23, 2014

Oh, I'll feed you baby birds. Yes, let's take a look at those first three months with the Brewers from Wily last year, he's Player B above. Looks an awful lot like Marco's numbers so far this year, doesn't it? Obviously a higher WHIP for Peralta, but that's offset by Wily's ability to keep the ball in the park. So even if Jimmy Nelson does struggle to make the transition to the big leagues, it's hard to imagine a scenario where he's worse than Marco has been this year. 

However, I don't think that's going to happen, which brings us to Player D, which is Peralta's final year at AAA Nashville in 2012. The Brewers had a serious lack of pitching depth last year, which forced Wily into the starting rotation with the big league club when he could probably have benefited from a bit more seasoning in the minors. You can try comparing his numbers to Jimmy's this season, but you'll just start drooling, so maybe go get some bacon instead. We've seen what Peralta has become just one short year later, and I expect similar results from Nelson almost immediately (Peralta is almost exactly one month Nelson's senior). 

Pictured: The Brewers' bullpen dragging Wang (middle) to
the expanded roster finish line on Sept. 1.

Verdict: Marco has had long enough to try to turn his season back around, and it's no longer fair to Nelson (or to the poor hitters in the PCL that are forced to face him) to keep in the minors any longer. It's time to #FreeJimmyNelson. Marco can try to get his groove back in the Brewers' bullpen, making Mike Fiers the latest undeserved casualty to the Wei-Chung Wang experiment (68 days until September 1st!). 

*If you care to know which numbers I'm referring to, I'm looking at a .246 BABIP, which indicates quite a bit of luck (the league average is around .300), and an FIP of around 4.90 (estimated), which pointed to the regression that we're currently seeing.

Top 5 best and worst Wisconsin sports moments of the last 25 years

But we will include this picture

Following the US Men's National Team's thrilling victory over Ghana on Monday, I'm in the mood to rank the five best and worst sports moments I've experienced in my life. These are all going to be single moments, rather than entire games or seasons that were amazing, which is why you won't find the either of the Packers' Super Bowl wins, the Badgers' Final Four runs/Rose Bowl championships, etc. here. Also, this suffers from an inevitable recency effect, as the memory of huge moments fades over time. Deal with it. We'll start with the bad, to send you out on a high note.

Top Five Sports Heart-breakers

Shameful mention: Shaun Marcum announced as Game 6 starter in 2011 NLCS, Kirk Cousin's hail mary beats No. 6 Wisconsin, Ray Allen misses the tip-in to win in Philly in the game 5 of the ECF

5) 4th and 26

Date: January 11, 2004

Location: My parent's living room

This play was so painful it has its own Wikipedia page. After their thrilling overtime victory over Matt Hasselbeck and the Seahawks a week earlier, the Packers were one play away from a berth in the NFC Championship. Two incompletions, a penalty and a sack left the Eagles facing, well, you know what, with 1:18 left and no timeouts remaining on their own 25 yard line, trailing 17-14. The probability of a loss for the Packers was just slightly higher than the likelihood of Lance Armstrong winning another Sportsman of the Year award. Instead, Nick Barnett blew his coverage, Darren Sharper blew his coverage, Bhawoh Jue blew his coverage, and the Eagles were able to tie. Moments later, a Brett Favre overtime interception (stay tuned for more!) set up David Akers for the game winner.

4) The Catch II

Date: January 3, 1999

Location: Hannah Spear's birthday party

This would have been heartbreaking in it's own right: On 3rd and 3 from the Packers' 25 with eight seconds left and the Packers leading 27-23, Steve Young fired a strike to Terrell Owens to give the 49ers a miracle win after Favre had lead the team on what seemed to be the game-winning drive moments earlier as the Packers sought their third straight Super Bowl appearance (*huff huff huff* how about THAT sentence?). What made it even more painful was that replays clearly showed that Jerry Rice had fumbled four plays earlier in a play that the referees missed (replay review would come to the NFL the following season). Adding to the heartache, this would be Reggie White's final game as a Packer, as he retired following the season (and then came back to play for the Panthers). I cried in my parents' room for an hour after this game.

Can you not

3) Aaron Harrison's trey ends the Badgers' title hopes

Date: April 5, 2014

Location: Replay Sports Bar

I'm still not over this. The building was absolutely rocking with about 300 of my closest friends living and dying on every shot. The collective "oof" when Harrison's shot went in with 5.7 seconds to give Kentucky an improbable victory was palpable and awful. Even with all that time left on the clock, it just felt like the Badgers' luck had finally run out, and indeed it had as Traevon Jackson's prayer clanged off the rim as time expired. This game felt like a battle for the NCAA's soul, with Bo Ryan and his scrappy team of four-year, team-oriented grinders fighting on the side of good against Calipari's definitely-not-paid-yet, five-star McDonald's All-American one-and-dones. As with Butler facing Duke in the championship game just a couple years earlier, it seemed like everyone in the country outside of Lexington was a Badger fan that day. And once again, the evil empire won the day.

2) Favre's final pass as a Packer intercepted in the NFC Championship

Date: January 20, 2008

Location: E. Harmony Apartment in Whitewater

Playing in their first NFC championship game since 1998, the Packers seemed to be charmed and destined for a Super Bowl appearance in what was widely speculated to be Brett Favre's last year (lol), After a wild, see-saw game, the teams headed to overtime after Lawrence Tynes missed the potential game winner from 36 yards out with four seconds to play, his second miss of the game. At this point, I'm already an absolute train wreck. When Favre threw the second pass of the overtime period right into Corey Webster's chest near the home team's sideline, I had to leave the living room and could only listen, lying face down on my extra-long twin size bed furnished by DLK Enterprises (UW-Whitewater s/o), as the game once again hung on the wildly inaccurate leg of Tynes. Shortly after he connected from 47 yards to put the Giants in the Super Bowl, my roommate and best friend Derek watched me pour the first alcoholic beverage I ever imbibed, the first of three I took before 21st birthday. It was a shot of UV Pink, and it tasted like heartbreak.

Touchdown Celtics!

1) The Fail Mary

Date: September 24, 2012

Location: Mad Dog's Sports Bar and Grill

Bugger that and bugger you, Seattle.

Top Five Best Sports Moments:

Honorable Mention: Ben Brust's miracle trey sends the Badgers to OT vs. Michigan (right), Desmond Howard's kickoff return in Super Bowl XXXI, Ron Dayne breaks the NCAA career rushing record

5) Ryan Braun's extra innings grand slam beats the Pirates

Date: September 25, 2008

Location: Miller Park Terrace Level

Locked in a tie with the Mets for the Wild Card lead with three games to play, the Brewers were tied at one with the Pirates, a team they'd beaten 12 out of 13 times in 2008, heading into extra frames. Tensions in the stands were high with the left field scoreboard already flashing the NYM 7, CHC 6 final. With the bases loaded and two outs in the bottom of the tenth, Ryan Braun drilled the 2-2 pitch into the Brewers bullpen, keeping the Brewers abreast of New York and sending 43,000 fans into delirium. This of course came two days after Prince Fielder's own walk-off two-run shot against Pittsburgh, and three days before, well, stay tuned.

4 Graham Zusi and John Brooks shock Ghana

Date: June 16, 2014

Location: Jack's American Pub

You've just seen it, so I won't bore you with a recap. If you're not aware, you don't care anyway. The beautiful corner from one substitute to the second-touch header of the other to finally exorcise the Ghana demons just minutes after Ghana had equalized was one of the greatest moments in recent USMNT history. The bar was jam packed wall-to-wall, floor-to-ceiling, and the the jubilation that occured after the goal was amazing to be a part of. How much it will mean in the grand scheme of the tournament remains to be seen, but Brooks' reaction says it all: "OH MY GOD!!!!! Oh my God....oh...my god...I need to lie down."

3) Rodgers to Cobb puts the Packers in the playoffs

Date: December 29, 2013

Location: Shorewood Apartment

After suffering though two months of bad quarterbacks for the first time in my life, Aaron Rodgers made his triumphant return against the team that knocked him out in a winner-take-all NFC North championship game against the Bears. The lead changed hands four times, and with the Packers trailing by one with 6:24 remaining, the quarterback led the Packers on a game-winning drive that included two fourth down conversions, none bigger than the 48-yard strike to Randall Cobb, who himself had missed the previous 11 games, on 4th and 8 with 38 seconds to play. I watched this at home with some of my best friends, which is really how I should watch all important sporting events, because I don't do losing in public all that well.

2) Wes Helms and Ryan Braun put the Brewers in the playoffs for the first time in 26 years

Date: (2008)

Location: My cousin's birthday party in Racine

The Brewers' first potential playoff appearance since losing the 1982 World Series to the hateful Cardinals hung in the balance on the season's final day, with the Brewers, hosting the Cubs, tied for the wild card lead with the Mets, hosting the Marlins. Both games started at approximately the same due to an hour long rain delay at Shea (lol rain delays), and both entered the eighth inning tied. Completely isolated in the corner watching this game on the tiny TV I was allowed to use while the rest of the family watched the Packers lose to Tampa Bay (probably Aaron Rodgers worst game of his career, incidentally), I was an absolute nervous wreck. In the bottom of the eighth, Ryan Braun drilled the first pitch he saw into the left field bleachers, giving the Brewers a 3-1 lead they would not relinquish. Moments later, FSN North cut away to Shea as former Brewer and confirmed terrible third baseman Wes Helms became a Milwaukee hero when he ripped a pinch hit home run, the first of a back-to-back pair with Dan Uggla, to give the Marlins a 4-2 lead in the eighth that also became the final. The Brewers ended their regular season with a nifty double play, the Mets completed their second consecutive September collapse, and playoff baseball returned to Milwaukee for the first time since the Reagan administration.

1) Tony Plush's extra innings walk-off sends the Brewers to the NLCS

Date: (2011)

Location: Miller Park Terrace Level

After both teams held serve at home, the Brewers and Diamondbacks returned to The Keg for a decisive game five. The D-Backs struck first, scoring in the third, but the Brewers tallied in the 4th and 6th to carry a 1-run lead into the ninth, when John Axford served up three straight hits, including a Willie Bloomquist bunt single that tied the game. With the jam-packed stadium holding it's breath on every pitch, Carlos Gomez laced a one out single to left, stole second on the 1-1 pitch to Nyjer Morgan, who then just tickled it into the outfield, scoring Gomez and sending 44,000 screaming fans into a sustained fit of delirium that lasted for well over a half-hour before we started to clear the seating bowl. In season full of Plushdamental moments, this one topped them all.

Cardinals fans on Twitter have been trolled HARD by the #LockInLuc campaign

If you want a full list of the extreme levels of butthurt the Best Fans In Baseball are feeling today, feel free to hop on over to the timeline of @BestFansStLouis, who is currently killing the Twitter trolling game. Here, I'm posting some of my favorites. Enjoy and make sure you vote. #LockInLuc

Dear Brewer fans, Yadi has 6 Gold Gloves, 1 Silver Slugger award and 2 World Series Rings, where would you like to start this debate ?
— Bruce Winckel (@BAWinckel) June 18, 2014

Hey Jonathan Lucroy how about you sit your ass on the bench with your PED buddy Braun and watch Yadi hit dingers. #suckonacheesedong
— Jake Moss (@Moss_Jake_Moss) June 18, 2014

#LockInLuc hahahahaha fuck off Lucroy your absolutely garbage! You aren't getting voted in now after that joke of an ad! #stlcards #nlchamps
— Chad Temple (@Ctempz826) June 18, 2014

@siegyysieg @JLucroy20 hey lucroy suck my dick
— Pete Kozma (@DAVIDBACKES42) June 18, 2014

Jonathan Lucroy is the piece of dog shit Yadi has to scrape off his cleats. Best catcher in the national league, my ass! #fucktheBrewers

— Aaron Kane (@kanester12) June 18, 2014

I'd like to push Jonathan Lucroy off a cliff. Idiot thinks he's better than Molina. #newsflash #uhno #sitdown

— Sydney Creel (@sydcreel21) June 18, 2014

Brewers PR Department has declared war on the Cardinals, and it's amazing

If you haven't seen this already, first of all what is your deal, and second of all, watch this before reading further:

#LockInLuc is actually the second All-Star attack ad the Brewers have put out, the first being #GoForGomez which can be found here.

The Brewers have been struggling off and on of late, with my long blog post ranting about #WCW still being a thing and Jimmy Nelson continuing to not be a thing coming this week unless a miracle happens and we don't see Estrada at Coors this week (bring the Icy Hot for that whiplash), so it's fun to remember that we are in first place, and we can have a little fun with it. Everyone who isn't an asshole hates the St. Louis Cardinals, and even the Cardinals' fans I think probably have to hate Yadier Molina, who is basically the "The Mountain that Rides" of MLB: he's big, he's dumb, he's an asshole, but he's really quite good at the only thing that he does well (playing catcher for the former, and murdering people for the latter) (also, nerd check).

Basically I just want to say thank you to the people who made this happen. Also, stay tuned for what is sure to be a shoddily and hastily done retort from the evil empire:

Rumors abound of a Cardinals retort to the #LockinLuc ad. http://t.co/LYTCJPSHZo

— Brad Weimer (@bradweimer) June 17, 2014

Brewers Sign Everyone, Score Huge Coup for Themselves (and the Badgers)

Monte Harrison, future Hall of Famer

The top part of the Brewers draft this year was considered high-risk/high-reward in two senses. Their top three selections (LHP Kodi Medeiros, OF Monte Harrison, SS Jacob Gatewood) are all high schoolers with high upsides (Harrison, selected in the second round at 50th overall, was considered by many to be the best athlete in the draft). In the case of Harrison and Gatewood, they were also considered difficult signs (see MLB Draft explanation below), especially Harrison, a three-sport star who had already committed to Nebraska as a four-star wide receiver recruit. Most draft pundits lauded the Brewers picks as a major haul, with the notable caveat that they were not likely to be able to sign all three.

Instead, the Brewers have moved very quickly to sign both Gatewood and Harrison, and a deal with Medeiros is imminent. The Harrison signing in particular is a major coup for the Brewers, as the general consensus is that he would have easily been a first round pick in terms of mere talent level, and his fall to the second was entirely based on the belief that he would choose to pursue a football career.

Obviously, the success of MLB draft picks is the most difficult to project, and these three players could all become all-stars, or they could all be out of baseball in two years. But for an organization that is routinely criticized for its lack of high-upside talent, the 2014 draft has certainly addressed the issue. Suck it, Keith Law.

As an added bonus for WINsconsin sports fans, the Harrison signing robs Nebraska of one their top five incoming freshmen, who was expected to contribute right away for probably the only legitimate threat to the Badgers in the new East division. See you in the B1G Championship, Urban.

A quick and dirty explanation of the MLB First-Year Player Draft for those unfamiliar with the process: Unlike in the NBA or NFL drafts, with which you are likely infinitely more familiar, players do not declare for the MLB draft. Rather, any high school graduate is eligible to be selected, as is any collegiate player after their junior year (or after they've turned 21). So in a addition to evaluating talent level, teams must also account for the "signability" of a player, since the rights to any player that is not signed (because that student chose to go to school instead) by July 15th are lost, and the draft pick wasted. 
Each draft slot is assigned a bonus amount that, pooled together with a team's other picks, represents their bonus pool for the draft. This is the maximum amount each team is allowed to offer their draft picks in signing bonuses, and there are big luxury tax and potential loss of future draft pick penalties for exceeding that limit.