Tuesday, April 5, 2011

MLB Preview Part 6: AL West

Is this almost too late to be relevant? Yes. Am I going to do it anyway because I can't not finish something I started? Yes. Is the fact that the Brewers once promising season has become a horrific train-wreck excuse enough for me to not really want to write about baseball so much? I think so. Did I forget to post this four days ago? Absolutely. Anyway, here's part six, the AL West.

1) Texas Rangers
What to like: The defending American League champions got off to a hot start by sweeping the league favorite Red Sox. The potent lineup, led by a pair of MVP candidates in the outfield in Josh Hamilton and Nelson Cruz, got even stronger in the off-season when the Rangers added 3B Adrian Beltre, whose outstanding season last year earned him a huge contract. The tenuous situation with utility player Michael Young, who is an important part of the Texas lineup, seems to have calmed down some.

What not to like: Losing staff ace Cliff Lee is going to have an impact on the Rangers. The only real outside help they got to replace Lee is RHP Brandon Webb, who hasn't been healthy in years and still isn't ready to start making minor league starts. The starting rotation will only be good enough to help the Rangers repeat as AL West champions if most or all of last years surprises (Colby Lewis, C.J. Wilson, Tommy Hunter) turn out to not be flukes.

Outlook: If the pitching holds up, and it says here that it will, the Rangers should have no problem winning around 90 games and repeating as division champions.

Key player: Hamilton. The reigning AL MVP is one of the great baseball stories of the past decade, sealing his successful comeback with his record-setting performance in the 2009 home run derby and then putting a stamp on it with his terrific season last year. Hamilton is in the driver's seat for the Rangers on offense, so they'll go as far as he can take them.

X-factor: Cruz. Cruz has been extremely impressive for the Rangers, considering he was a throw-in in the deal that brought slugger Carlos Lee to Texas in July of 2006 (nice work, Milwaukee). However, he is quickly approaching "injury-prone" status, as he has to play in 130 games in a season. If he can stay healthy, he'll team with Hamilton to give the Rangers one of the league's best 1-2 punches in the middle of the lineup.

Notable additions: Beltre, Webb, C Mike Napoli, LHP Arthur Rhodes

Notable subtractions: Lee, C Bengie Molina, DH Vladimir Guerrero

2) Oakland Athletics
What to like: Oakland's starting pitching staff is filled with guys who are the best pitchers you've never heard of: the A's starting staff led the league with a 3.47 ERA, yet most casual fans would struggle to name even one member of Oakland's starting rotation. The most notable member of the rotation, last year's perfectionist Dallas Braden, is probably only the fourth best pitcher on the team, behind Trevor Cahill, Brett Anderson and Gio Gonzalez. The offense added a couple of live bats in the off-season in outfielders David DeJesus and Josh Willingham and DH Hideki Matsui.

What not to like: The oft-injured Rich Harden, whom the A's brought back this off-season, is again on the DL, along with closer Andrew Bailey. Outside the three aforementioned acquisitions, there's not a lot of punch in the Athletics' lineup, which ranked 23rd in runs scored last year.

Outlook: The Athletics are talented, especially at the pitching position, and should be competitive in the division all season. Their lineup, however, is likely not strong enough to get them over the hump to unseat the Rangers in the West.

Key player: Cahill. The A's Opening Day starter saw his ERA drop over a point and a half from his 2009 rookie season, and made the All-Star team as a result. He was solid in the A's Opening Day loss to Seattle, striking out eight and surrendering just one run in 4.2 innings. He'll be expected to continue to progress into a top of the line ace for Oakland this year.

X-factor: Kurt Suzuki, C. Oakland's young catcher has been an iron man behind the plate, appearing in an average of 142 games in the last three seasons. He posted a career low .242 batting average last year after two consecutive years of .270 plus, however, and the A's need him to rebound this year and help anchor their lineup.

Notable additions: DeJesus, Willingham, Matsui, Harden

Notable subtractions: OF Rajai Davis, OF Jack Cust, RHP Ben Sheets

3) Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
What to like: The top of the rotation features the best 1-2 punch in the division in righties Jered Weaver and Dan Haren, each of whom posted ERAs of around 3 while playing for the Angels last season. The addition of OF Vernon Wells was panned by critics due to the size of his contract (and his belt line), but the money they're paying him shouldn't impact his on-field play, and he makes the lineup better.

What not to like: RHP Scott Kazmir continues his alarming slide into irrelevancy: the two-time All-Star saw his ERA rise over a point last year to 5.94, a far cry from his sub-3.50 days with the Rays. Slugging 1B Kendrys Morales, who injured his knee celebrating a walk-off grand slam last season, still hasn't returned and could be out until mid-May. The lineup is average, which isn't good enough for a team looking to contend with the Rangers and Athletics.

Outlook: Barring a very fast start and a blockbuster midseason deal to acquire more talent, the Angels will likely be also-rans in an improving American League West, a division they dominated from 2006-09.

Key player: Weaver. The Angels ace posted a 3.01 ERA and led the American League in strikeouts last season which put him squarely in the Cy Young race. Poor run support from the lineup saddled him with 12 losses, however. He may need to be even better than he was last year to keep the Angels above .500 this season.

X-factor: Peter Bourjos, CF. Veteran Torii Hunter moves to right to make room for the speedy rookie, who hit .314 and stole 27 bases last year at AAA Salt Lake. His stellar defense continues the tradition that Hunter and Jim Edmonds have set in center, but it remains to be seen if his bat can match those of his predecessors.

Notable additions: Wells

Notable subtractions: C Mike Napoli, DH Hideki Matsui

4) Seattle Mariners
What to like: Seattle's two superstars, OF Ichiro Suzuki and RHP Felix Hernandez, are back to chase down individual goals (Ichiro's 11th straight 200 hit year, Hernandez's second straight Cy Young award) and give the fans something to cheer about.

What not to like: King Feliz can't pitch every day, and Ichiro's season hit total might be greater than the rest of the lineup combined. An offense that produced just 3.2 runs per game last season made little improvement in the off-season, with only mild upgrades at first base, catcher and designated hitter.

Outlook: Hernandez will dominate, Ichiro will continue his march towards 3000 hits, and the Mariners will lose 100 games.

Key player: Hernandez. King Felix shattered the record for the lowest number of wins by a Cy Young award winner, thanks in large part to a Mariners offense that scored two or fewer runs in nearly half of his starts. He gave up more than 3 earned runs just four times last season, and failed to finish at least 6 innings just twice. Unfortunately, none of it matters until the Mariners have an offense that can score runs.

X-factor: Justin Smoak, 1B. Smoak was one of the most highly coveted talents in the 2008 draft, but he disappointed in his rookie season for the Rangers, hitting just .209 with eight home runs in 100 games before being shipped to Seattle in the Cliff Lee trade. He wasn't much better in his 70 appearances as a Mariner, hitting .239 with five home runs. He's only 24 years old, however, so there's plenty of time to develop into the slugger scouts expected him to be.

Notable additions: C Miguel Olivo, DH Jack Cust

Notable subtractions: 1B Russell Branyan

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