First post in a while. Whoops. Life's been unreal busy. HERE WE GO. The Brewers enter the second half tonight with a slim one game lead after watching the cushy lead they enjoyed most of the way evaporate during a disastrous July. Can they hold on to reach the playoffs for the third time in seven years? Here's the five biggest story lines to follow as we close in on October:
1) Jean Segura This has absolutely zero to do with the game of baseball. If you haven't already heard, Jean rejoined the team Thursday after spending the last week in his native Dominican Republic following the devastating loss of his nine-month-old son to an unspecified illness. He's said that he's ready to play, that he needs to get back into the routine to help him cope and move on with his life, but certainly no one could blame him if he struggles for a bit as his thoughts will be elsewhere. It will be interesting to see what kind of reception he gets in Washington when the Brewers return to action against the Nationals on Friday, hopefully Nats Nation will rise to the occasion and give the kind a hand. I expect the ovation he'll receive when the Brewers return home next Monday will be thunderous.
It's impossible to imagine the pain Jean is going through at this time. Here's hoping Jean goes off in the second half, popping off a couple of moonshots aimed straight up to the heavens for his son to catch. We're all rooting for you, Jean. RIP Janniel.
2) Jimmy Nelson In his two starts this season, Jimmy's been pretty good against a surprisingly powerful Marlins offense and awful against a surprisingly terrible Cardinals offense. The move to call him up and stick him in the rotation is one the Brewers won't likely backtrack on unless he really struggles for an extended period, so for better or worse, the Brewers chances of reaching the postseason this season are in large part tied to the 25-year-old righthander with 20 career IP in the majors under his belt (barring any monumentally stupid deadline moves moves).
As has been belabored here and all over the Brewers internet, however, his total domination of the PCL this year shows that he had little left to learn there, and he's either ready to be a major league contributor now, or he never will be. There will be more bumps in the road like Saturday's debacle against St. Louis, but I expect his to do more good than harm down the stretch.
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3) The Trade Deadline Obviously, we don't know how just how big of story this will be, because we don't know what DM has planned, but you can pretty much bank on the Brewers doing something to gear up for the stretch run -- it would be even more surprising to see them stand pat. Remember that in both years the Brewers have made the playoffs this century, Melvin pulled off a major trade in June to improve his team (C.C. Sabathia in 2008 and Francisco Rodriguez in 2011, not to mention the off-season trade for Zack Grienke). Melvin has been insistent that he doesn't plan to make any significant moves, which is a lie you can basically write down in your calendar in pen that he's going to make every July.
The most glaring needs for the Brewers are a left-handed power bat and a right-handed reliever, the latter concern intensified with their two best RHP relievers, Thornburg and Henderson, on the shelf. The Brewers don't have a ton of talent to offer in a potential trade, partly due to those aforementioned trades and partly due to several years of below average returns from the draft, but expect Melvin to move on something in the neighborhood of a Seth Smith or a Joaquin Benoit, both of the San Diego Padres. I'm still crossing my fingers hoping he'll do something to deal with his first base problem, but I'm not holding my breath.
4) The September Schedule One of the greatest sports schedule reforms of our lives has been MLB's emphasis on stuffing September full of inter-divisional games. The Brewers, Reds and Cardinals will all face each other 13 or 14 times in the season's final month, and if you want to throw the Pirates into the mix, the Brewers have a big stretch of nine straight road games against St. Louis, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh right in the middle of the month that will almost certainly decide their post-season fate. If at any point anyone needs to contact me in September, don't. I'll be an absolute mess. Prepare your butts, Brewers fans.
5) Will The Bullpen Break? One of the Brewers' surprise strengths throughout much of the first half, the bullpen really started to show some cracks in July, due to a multitude of factors, including the injuries to Henderson and Thornburg, the strain of playing a man short while they dragged the Wei-Chung Wang nonsense out, and just some expected regression from an absolutely preposterous start. Unfortunately, Henderson and Thornburg remain without timetables for their returns, but the Wei-Chung Wang situation seems to finally have worked itself out after he was DL'd presumably at least until rosters expand on September 1st (nice bit of work there, Brewers medical staff). If the Brewers are going to stay in the hunt, their going to need K-Rod, The Fresh Prince, Zack Duke et. al to continue their impressive seasons.
