Week 3 NFL Picks

We're a day late but...you'll be fine. I'm getting used to a new work schedule. This one's brief and straight to business... just picks.

Last Week:
10-6 Straight Up
10-6 Against the Spread
Year to date:
19-13 Straight Up
18-14 Against the Spread

San Fransisco 49ers (+3) @ Kansas City Chiefs

Detroit Lions (+11.5) @ Minnesota Vikings
Brett Favre gets one more shot to prove he's not a walking corpse. Here's hoping he fails.

Buffalo Bills (+14.5) @ New England Patriots

Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints (-3)

Tennessee Titans (+3) @ New York Giants
*Upset Special*

Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This line is stupid. Steelers by 14.

Cincinnati Bengals (-3) @ Carolina Panthers

Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens (-10.5)
Remember when the Ravens used to be the Browns? God hates Cleveland.

Dallas Cowboys(+2.5) @ Houston Texans
I don't think the Texans are ready to be the best team in the state yet.

Washington Redskins (-4.5) @ St. Louis Rams

Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Indianapolis Colts (-5.5) @ Denver Broncos
Duh.

Oakland Raiders (+4.5) @ Arizona Cardinals

San Diego Chargers (-5.5) @ Seattle Seahawks

New York Jets (+1) @ Miami Dolphins
No respect for the Jets without Revis. I love them here,

Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears (-3)
My head tells me not to bet against a home 'dog on Monday night. My heart hopes its not this close.

Tampa Bay Rays: All that is wrong with MLB

Perhaps the title of this post is a tad misleading. I love the Rays: I love their team, I love the way they play, I love the way their front office runs the team. They are hypothetically set up to be not just good, but great, for a long, long time. Their dominant, young pitching and cadre of young star position players means the Rays are built for a theoretical dynasty that would be able to compete with baseball's fat cats, the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees, in the brutal AL East for years.

So what's the problem? This imaginary dynasty will not come to be in Tampa Bay, nor could it anywhere in the league outside of Los Angeles, New York, Chicago and Boston. Major League Baseball's lack of a salary cap means that teams in smaller markets, like Tampa Bay, can never truly compete. New York fans and traditionalists will cry, "What are you talking about!? Look at all the small market teams in the mix this year: Minnesota, Tampa Bay, San Diego! You just have to run the team the right way! You're just crying sour milk because Doug Melvin has run a promising Brewers team into the ground."

Well, that's true. It's not fair, and I'm mad, but you fail to see the point. Sure, if a small market team makes all the right moves, gets good value in the draft consistently, doesn't make any mistakes on big free agents signings and trades (Jeff Suppan, Trevor Hoffman, Doug Davis, Carlos Gomez: we're looking at you, big guys), and has the right coach, it can makes waves for a year of two, like the Rays have. But due to the way the league is set up, it can't last for more than that with out a long and substantial string of luck. Teams like Tampa Bay become glorified farm teams for the big boys, getting a nice pat on the head before being sent back to the bottom of standings, with their pockets picked of their best talent.

After this year, the Rays will almost certainly lose three big components of their success this year: speedy outfielder Carl Crawford, slugging first baseman Carlos Pena and shutdown closer Rafael Soriano. Due to a lack of attendance (the Rays draw about 20,000 fans per game) and low revenues from television, Rays owner Stuart Sternberg has already stated that next year's team will have a salary of about $60 million, dropping $13 million off of a payroll that already ranks just 19th in the league (the Brewers, for the record, are 18th, with approximately 2/3 of a Jeff Suppan separating the two teams).

Can the Rays still compete next year? Sure they can, but don't count on it. They'll still have their dominant starting pitching and a bonafide superstar in Evan Longoria. But they'll be forced to replace two big cogs of their offense with something out of their farm system, and the drop in both talent and experience will be significant. On the flip side, perennial contenders New York and Boston will have plenty of cash to sign big free agents (Crawford to New York, Pena to Boston anyone?) to fill any holes that they may have, and money to burn if it doesn't work out. There is a reason the NFL is king in America these days: fans (that don't live in New York) like parity. They want to know that their team has a shot every year. Bud Selig and the MLBPA need to compromise and make MLB fair for every team.

Week 2 NFL Picks

Every Friday, I'll be calling 'em like I sees 'em for the upcoming slate of NFL games (note: I swear this blog isn't just about the NFL but...the Brewers suck so I stopped caring).

Year to date:
9-7 Straight Up
8-8 Against the Spread

Arizona Cardinals @ Atlanta Falcons (-6.5)
Arizona's win over St. Louis last week doesn't impress me, as a win over an NFC West opponent rarely does. Which, I suppose, means we'll have to wait until week 3 to see what we have in the Falcons, because beating up on Derek and the Dominoes in week 2 won't erase the image of their hapless offensive output last week against the Steelers.

Baltimore Ravens (-1.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals got torched by Brady and the Patriots last week, which isn't a rare occurrence but still cause for some concern. Baltimore got a big win over the AFC East darling Jets in week 1, a 10-9 barn-burner.

Kansas City Chiefs (+1.5) @ Cleveland Browns
The Chiefs impressed with a big division win over the high-flying Chargers last week on Monday night. The Browns were the Browns. God hates Cleveland.

Chicago Bears (+8.5) @ Dallas Cowboys
I like the Bears to cover but lose this game. The Cowboys looked out of sync last week in a shocking loss to the Redskins, which concerns me, but not as much as the Bears needing a poorly written rule to get a gift TKO against the Lions.

Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) @ Detroit Lions
Mike Vick makes his big return as a starting quarterback this week, and he couldn't have picked a better opponent to showcase his skills to the rest of the league in hopes of finding a starting gig. Vick should run circles around the Lions defense, meaning he won't need to test his less-than-accurate arm all that much.

Buffalo Bills @ Green Bay Packers (-13.5)
Will the Packers miss Ryan Grant? Does it matter this week? 13.5 is a lot of points to lay, but this has 30-10 written all over it. The Bills are useless.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+5.5) @ Tennessee Titans
UPSET SPECIAL ALERT. Can't understand why the Titans are getting 5.5 in this game. I love the Titans this year, but the Steelers made the Falcon offense, one predicted by many to dethrone the Saints in the NFC South, look terrible. The Steelers to cover and win.

Miami Dolphins @ Minnesota Vikings (-5.5)
Brett Favre and the Vikings offense looked all kinds of out of sorts on Thursday night, to the delight of myself and Packer fans everywhere. However, the ageless one has never lost at home in a Vikings uniform, and the Dophins could only muster 15 points last week against the lowly Bills.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5) @ Carolina Panthers
I have the Panthers to win this one, but I'm hedging my bet by taking the Bucs against the spread. Matt Moore looked awful for the Panthers last week...luckily, he's unlikely to play this week. Let the Jimmy Clausen era begin.

Seattle Seahawks (+3.5) @ Denver Broncos
I don't really know what to make of either of these teams, so I'm taking the points. The Seahawks had the surprise of the week in blowing out the 49ers...until the Chiefs KO'd the Chargers on Monday night.

St. Louis Rams (+4.5) @ Oakland Raiders
Oakland, a trendy pre-season sleeper to make the playoffs, was exposed last week against the Titans. I'll take the points, but give the Raiders the win...Bradford hasn't learned how to win in the NFL yet.

New England Patriots (+1.5) @ New York Jets
A big game for early supremacy in the AFC East. The Patriots looked super last week in blasting the Bengals, while the Jets offense sputtered against the Ravens. Remember...before their playoff run, this team was 9-7 last year. 9-7.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ San Diego Chargers (-7.5)
The Chargers were embarrassed last week on national television in a daunting loss to the Chiefs. The Jaguars are not very good at football. Watch out.

Houston Texans (-2.5) @ Washington Redskins
Two of last weeks biggest upset specials meet in week 2. Arian Foster and the Texans shocked Peyton and the Colts last week, and I think they roll to 2-0 here against the Redskins.

New York Giants @ Indianapolis Colts (-5.5)
Was last week a fluke, or are the Colts in trouble? For now, we'll call it a one week anomaly. Oft-injured safety Bob Sanders is once again out for the year.

New Orleans Saints (-4.5) @ San Fransisco 49ers
I'm surprised this line isn't a lot higher. The Saints started their title defense in style last Thursday, while the 49ers were trashed by the lowly Seahawks. A sleeper of a Monday Night Matchup...unless you like blowouts (or have Drew Brees on your fantasy team).

Every scientist's worst nightmare: Green Bay's life without Grant

If you're keeping score, the Philidephia and Green Bay defenses have now combined to to cost 6 players at least 62 games missed with injuries: Eagles' QB Kevin Kolb and LB Stewart Bradley will both miss next week's game after failing to pass the NFL's new post-concussion tests, while fellow Eagles FB Leonard Weaver and C Jamaal Jackson, as well as Packers DE Justin Harrell and, of course, RB Ryan Grant, are all done for the season. Not sure what the Eagles were thinking going out and actually playing against an ancient viking demon lord, risen to assure the Packers victory, but they got what they asked for.

Skipping right over the oft-injured and replaceable Harrell (he's appeared in just 14 games over four professional seasons), many Packer fans are worried about the running game on what is otherwise a stellar offense (save for a few all too familiar faces on the offensive line). With Grant out, 4th-year running back Brandon Jackson out of Nebraska gets the call as the feature back, with FB John Kuhn likely to get some carries in the red zone, especially after the way he powered through to first set up and then score Green Bay's second touchdown last Sunday.

Grant's fantasy owners who were savvy enough to grab Jackson after word of Grant's injury came out should expect some drop off, but not much. Jackson will have to prove that he can carry the load through an NFL season: he's missed 14 games over the past three seasons (Hey! He and Harrel combined almost make a whole football player!). He's not the same type of rusher as Grant: more of a grinder with less breakaway speed, but I don't expect much drop off in production, though the Packers may rely even more heavily on the passing game from here on out. A time share in the backfield is unlikely for now, with Jackson being the only half back on the roster before Dimitri Nance was added off of Atlanta's practice squad yesterday. The only thing Jackson's new fantasy owners should worry about in terms of playing time is the aforementioned touchdown vulture in Kuhn. Many talking heads have suggested trades, especially for Bills odd man out Marshawn Lynch, but I find this unlikely given Ted Thompson's history of building his teams through the draft exclusively.

As far as the real life Packers are concerned, head coach Mike McCarthy has already come out saying the he has complete confidence in Jackson's ability to be an every down back. Of course, this is exactly the kind of coach-speak you'd expect to hear after a season-ending injury to your star running back, except that he said it over a month ago after Grant missed a preseason game with a concussion. He does have some problems holding onto the football (he coughed one up in the red zone against Indianapolis in the preseason), and he also has a history of being banged up. Fortunately, we won't really see what the Packers have in Jackson until week three: the lowly Bills come to town this week, against whom 80-year-old Gloria Sarandos, a certified Packers superfan and my wonderful grandmother, could gain 75 yards and a touchdown.

Breaking News out of the NY Jets locker room: Men attracted to women!

Yes, that's right, folks, it turns out that most of the players in the New York Jets locker room are indeed attracted to females (the Sanchize not withstanding).

If you haven't seen the story, Ines Sainz, a sideline "reporter" for the New York Jets, was allegedly harassed in the New York Jets locker room, receiving catcalls and the like from players while one assistant coach is said to have deliberately thrown passes to players near Sainz during a practice drill. Many people in the media were up in arms about the incident, and the NFL launched an investigation.

First of all, to the left is what Sainz looked like THAT DAY. Form fitting, ultra-tight pants and a short, tight shirt with just a hint of midriff showing. Now, I'm not sayingthat what the Jets players did was right, or what I would have done, but come on! This is a closed space containing 53 of the most testosterone-filled alpha-dogs on the planet, all of whom are between the ages of 21 and 40. If you drop a ping pong ball in a room filled with 50-plus kittens, you cannot get mad when they bat it around a little.

Also, as far as sideline reporters go, I don't think there's a lot of doubt as to how she got her job at TV Azteca. You can see her reaction to the story, as well as a demonstration of her abilities as a TV personality in this interview.

And now, Washington Redskins' running back Clinton Portis has come under fire for saying out loud what everyone in the world already knows: guys like hot chicks, and hot chicks dig athletes. The NFL has come out and publicly rebuked Portis for his comments. Seriously? He said, "You put a woman and you give her a choice of 53 athletes, somebody got to be appealing to her." He shouldn't be apologizing for that, and the NFL has more important things to worry about than scantily-clad women being surprised when they are looked at in an NFL locker room. Like, for example, this.