What to do with Grienke?

The Brewers have done what we said they needed to do, which was tread water until the stars that began the year on the DL (Zack Greinke, Corey Hart, Jonathan Lucroy) were back and ready to lead us to the promised land. Pending the result of today's game, which doesn't look promising at the moment, the Brewers are right at .500 and, more importantly, within a game of first place in the NL Mediocre. There's plenty to complain about: disappointing starts from John Axford and Sean Greene, the lack of production from the bottom of the order, Ed Cedar's terrible decision making, but there's also plenty to rave about for the Crew: an MVP type start for Ryan Braun to go with All-Star starts from Prince Fielder and Rickie Weeks and a very surprising start to the season for the starting rotation.

Which brings us to Greinke, who will likely make just one or two more rehab starts with Triple A Nashville before making his Brewers debut in early May. The Brewers starting rotation has been flipped upside down, and if the trends started in April continue into May, then Ron Roenicke and the Brewers front office is going to have an interesting decision to make.

To start, here's a look at the Brewers starting rotation, top to bottom, this year (stats through April 26):

Yovani Gallardo: 2-1, 4.88 ERA, 31.1 IP, 20 K
Shawn Marcum: 2-1, 2.73 ERA, 29.2 IP, 28 K
Randy Wolf: 3-2, 2.64 ERA, 30.2 IP, 29 K
Chris Narveson: 1-1, 4.33 ERA, 27 IP, 25 K
Marco Estrada: 1-0, 3.00 ERA, 21 IP, 18 K

So, as expected, Wolf and Marcum are the clear aces of the staff, with Estrada and Narveson being the solid middle-of-the-rotation guys we thought they'd be, and Gallardo filling in temporarily until Greinke is ready to...wait a minute, what? Before the season it was clear that Estrada would make his way back to Nashville promptly when Greinke was ready to return, and the dominating threesome of Greinke, Gallardo and Marcum would lead us to 90 wins and an NL Mediocre title. But now, with the starting rotation looking like it just came out of a blender, the picture is no longer so clear.

So now what? It's clear at this point that Estrada has pitched himself into a guaranteed spot on the Brewers' roster, though its unlikely to be as a starter: no one other than Gallardo has really pitched himself out of the rotation, and there's no way on Yount's green earth Yo leaves the rotation, barring a convenient DL stint for him when Greinke returns. So no, there will not be any question about what the rotation will look like: Greinke, Gallardo, Marcum, Wolf and Narveson will be the Crew's rotation, as expected.

The decision making will come from who the crew will send down from the bullpen, especially with Takashi Saito set to return from the DL at about the same time. Here are the candidates:

Green: 7.27 ERA, 8.2 IP, 3 K
Brandon Kintzler: 4.22 ERA, 10.2 IP, 13 K
Zach Braddock: 2.16 ERA, 8.1 IP, 6 K

Braddock should be safe, so it should be Green out the door first followed by Kintzler. That being said, however, Green is an established major league player whom the Brewers traded for in the offseason, and the Brewers have in the past resisted dispatching with those type of guys despite their performance. It's difficult to imagine him surviving Greinke's return, however: he's been by far the worst of an otherwise solid bullpen, with another run surrendered today as I write this.

But how much impact will Greinke's return really have? The Brewers are 2-1 in Estrada's starts this year, and the loss was in Washington, when the Brewers' bats appeared to have been lost by baggage claim. On the whole, does Greinke give the Brewers a better chance to win than Estrada does? Sure. But the real impact will come in the strengthening of the bullpen...and in Gallardo bouncing back, which he surely will soon.