MLB Preview Part 5: NL West

I meant to wrap these up on Opening Day, but the Brewers’ catastrophic 9^th inning debacle in Cincinnati turned me off to baseball for about 24 hours. So here we go, two days late but still wonderfully relevant: the NL West.

1) Los Angeles Dodgers
What to like: The starting rotation isn’t flashy, but its solid from top to bottom: Clayton Kershaw is a top of the line ace, and newly acquired Jon Garland is probably the best No. 5 pitcher in the league. Each is capable of a sub-4.00 ERA and double digit wins. The heart of the order, featuring OF Matt Kemp, OF Andre Ethier, 1B James Loney and SS Rafael Furcal, is easily the best in the division, if they can stay healthy. C Rod Barajas and 2B Juan Uribe should be upgrades over Russell Martin and Ronnie Belliard.

What not to like: The only real question mark is the bullpen. Closer Jonathan Broxton was a star in 2009, but saw some regression last year, despite making the All-Star game for the second consecutive year. The lineup failed to produce consistently throughout the season last year, and the stars will have to bounce back for the Dodgers to win.

Outlook: If the lineup can produce, and everyone stays healthy, the Dodgers have the kind of roster that can unseat the Giants as NL West champions. The starting rotation is deep enough to keep the Dodgers in games on a daily basis.

Key player: Kershaw. The Dodgers’ ace was terrific on Opening Day, outdueling headliner Tim Lincecum and sending a message to the Giants early. If he can maintain at that level throughout the season, he has the potential to win 18-20 games and compete for a Cy Young award.

X-factor: Furcal. The Dodgers shortstop is terrific when healthy: he’s always a threat to hit .300 and steal 25 bases. However, he’s played a full season only once since 2008, and his All-Star campaign last year was marred by injuries, as he played only 97 games. The Dodgers need him to stay healthy and produce all season.

Notable additions: Garland, Uribe

Notable subtractions: Martin

2) San Francisco Giants
What to like: I don’t really like forecasting repeat division winners in most cases, but the World Champions are solid up and down and should only improve in 2011. The offense should improve with a full season of NL Rookie of the Year Buster Posey, a bounce-back year from Pablo Sandoval and a renovated outfield. And of course, the rotation, led by Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain, is still the best staff west of Philadelphia.

What not to like: The Giants don’t score a ton of runs, and while they should be better, they still won’t be lighting up the scoreboard. There’s also an overwhelming sense that they just happened to get hot at the right time last year, and probably weren’t baseball’s best team.

Outlook: I don’t see a return trip to the fall classic for the Giants, but back-to-back division titles is possible as long as the offense can put up at least a couple runs per game.

Key Player: Posey, C. His numbers from his rookie season, in which he had just 403 at bats, extrapolate to about 25 HR, 100 RBI and a .300 batting average over a full season. Assuming he improves with experience, Posey is a sure-fire multiple All-Star and a possible MVP candidate. He’ll be expected to lead an otherwise pedestrian Giants offense.

X-factor: Jonathan Sanchez, RHP. Sanchez’s ERA in 2010 (3.07) was over a point lower than his previous career best the year before (4.24). It could be that he’s finally fulfilling the potential he showed in the minors, or it could be that he just had a career year and his ERA will normalize to about the 4.50 mark he’d shown during the first four years of his career. Control is an issue: he lead the NL in walks last year.

Notable additions: SS Miguel Tejada

Notable subtractions: INF Juan Uribe, SS Edgar Renteria

3) Colorado Rockies
What to like: The Rockies offense, which is lead by a pair of MVP candidates in SS Troy Tulowitzki and OF Carlos Gonzalez, with the former looking to solidify his standing as the league’s best shortstop and the latter looking to prove that his breakout year in 2011 wasn’t a fluke. Cy Young candidate Ubaldo Jimenez is one of the game’s best pitchers.

What not to like: Gonzalez’s 2010 might have been a fluke, and other than Tulowitzki, a lot of players are going to need to have bounce-back years for the Rockies to contend for a division title: 1B Todd Helton and C Chris Ianetta chief among them. The rotation behind Jimenez is precarious at best, with Jorge De La Rosa and Jhoulys Chacin the best options behind the ace.

Outlook: The Rockies could easily steal the division title from the Giants should the defending world champs stumble, and if they can learn to win games on the road.

Key player: Gonzalez. The Rockies’ young outfielder came out of nowhere to win the NL batting title (.336) while tallying 34 HR, 117 RBI 26 SB and 197 hits, all of which were totals greater than his first two MLB seasons combined. If it wasn’t a fluke, then Gonzalez is a legitimate triple crown threat and should lead the Rockies into a battle for the division.

X-factor: De La Rosa. The Brewers and Royals castoff has found a home in the Rockies starting rotation as the team’s most consistent pitcher behind Jimenez. His career numbers aren’t great: a 5.02 ERA and a WHIP of 1.52, but he’s been improving steadily every year since 2007, and has progressed into a solid middle of the rotation guy.

Notable additions: UTIL Ty Wiggington

Notable subtractions: C Miguel Olivo, RHP Jeff Francis, RHP Octavio Dotel

4) San Diego Padres
What to like: Not a whole lot, other than the fact that the Diamondbacks should keep them out of the cellar. Outside of Mat Latos and Clayton Richard, the last holdovers from a depleted starting rotation, the Padres don’t have a lot to like.

What not to like: The team that surprised everyone to grab 90 wins and second place in the NL West was ransacked in the off-season, losing slugger Adrian Gonzalez as well as four other offensive starters and half of its starting rotation in the departures of Jon Garland, Kevin Correia and Chris Young. The replacement parts (RHP Aaron Harang, 1B Brad Hawpe), with the exceptions of Tampa Bay import SS Jason Bartlett and 2B Orlando Hudson, are significant downgrades.

Outlook: The Padres won’t be winning 90 games this season, and with all the losses they sustained, 90 losses isn’t out of the question.

Key player: Tim Sauffer, RHP. The Padres Opening Day starter has dealt with numerous injuries since being drafted fourth overall in 2003, but finally made his mark in the majors last year when he was inserted into the rotation during last season’s pennant race.

X-factor: Casey Kelly, RHP. The star pitching prospect was the key piece of the trade that sent Gonzalez to the Red Sox in the off-season. With little else to look forward to in San Diego, the hope is that Kelly pans out and makes the loss of their best offensive player more digestible.

Notable additions: Bartlett, Harang, Hawpe, Hudson, CF Cameron Maybin

Notable subtractions: Gonzalez, Garland, Young, Correia, CF Tony Gwynn Jr., 2B David Eckstein, SS Miguel Tejada, C Yorvit Torrealba,

5) Arizona Diamondbacks
What to like: See Padres, San Diego. RHP Daniel Hudson, who the Diamondbacks acquired from the White Sox last July in the Edwin Jackson trade, has the stuff to be a legitimate staff ace. 2B Kelly Johnson is talented, but he’ll never be the best hitter on a contending team. Slotting newly acquired RHP J.J. Putz in the closer role is … well, it’s better than anything else they had.

What not to like: Other than Hudson, the starting rotation, along with the rest of the pitching staff, is filled with mediocre-at-best talent. The lineup is weak, filled with several once-promising prospects that have largely disappointed like OF Justin Upton and SS Stephen Drew. They didn’t get nearly enough in return for departed stars Dan Haren and Mark Reynolds, so there’s not a lot of hope on the way in the farm system, either.

Outlook: Avoiding 100 losses would have to considered somewhat of a success for the D’Backs. If the Padres struggles get out of hand, maybe they can snag fourth place.

Key player: Hudson. The one slight glimmer of hope for the D’Backs was 7-1 with a 1.69 ERA in 11 starts with Arizona last season. If nothing else, Hudson guarantees that the Diamondbacks will be in a game at least once every five days, at least until the bullpen takes over.

X-factor: OF Chris Young. Young was the Diamondbacks’ representative at the All-Star game last season, probably more by default than anything else. Still, he hit 27 home runs and his .257 batting average, 91 RBI and 28 stolen bases were the highest totals of his four year career. He’ll need to get his average up to be a true anchor in the middle of the lineup, but the talent is there.

Notable additions: Putz, 1B Russell Branyan, LHP Zach Duke, OF Xavier Nady, 3B Melvin Mora, RHP Armando Gallaraga

Notable subtractions: 3B Mark Reynolds, RHP Brandon Webb, 1B Adam LaRoch