The Case for Jimmy Nelson

Since I haven't yet and things still haven't changed, as a blogger for the Brewers, I'm here to finally write my requisite WHERE IS JIMMY NELSON ASDSDFJK #FREEJIMMYNELSON post. We'll start with some blind player comparisons, and then launch into it, grabbing the numbers along the way.

Player A: 5.22 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 2.4 HR/9, 8.1 K/9, 2.8 BB/9

Player B: 5.58 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 1.1 HR/9, 5.0 K/0, 3.61 BB/9

Player C: 1.79 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 0.3 HR/9, 9.6 K/9, 2.7 BB/9

Player D: 4.66 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 0.6 HR/9, 8.8 K/9, 4.8 BB/9

(All stats from Baseball Reference, current through 6/24/14)

Let's start with the most easily recognizable line, and that's Player A, which is Marco Estrada in 2014. The obvious number that pops out at you is the 2.4 homers per nine, which gives him a staggering 24 dingers allowed this season, easily leading the league and already a career high for him. But the digging a little deeper, the second number you fall on is the 2.8 walks per nine, which is almost a full walk higher than either of his last two seasons. When taken together with the increased home run rate this year, you've got a guy who is surrendering more home runs, with more people on base. The advanced numbers bear this out: his FIP is actually higher than his ugly ERA, sitting at 5.77.

"Sir, you want home run? Home run? Free?"

Now, obviously Marco is struggling right now, and I do not think he's actually as bad as he's been this year. But we've identified a problem. Even taking into account that Marco wasn't all that bad until the middle of May (although his advanced numbers screamed out that this was coming*), obviously you can't have a guy who is passing out home runs like the little old Chinese lady in front of the Asian buffet hands out free samples of chicken teriyaki at the mall if you've got a better option waiting in the wings.

So the question becomes, do the Brewers have a better option? Enter Jimmy Nelson, whose stat line at AAA Nashville this season can be seen above (he's Player C). You know what that line says to me? It says, "I'm done here." Nelson is absolutely dominating the Pacific Coast League, and it's becoming quite clear that he's progressed as far as he's going to in the minors. He's cut his walk rate from a year ago in half, suggesting that he's fixed the one major flaw in his game that remained to be worked out. At this point, you're just wasting valuable innings in the ever-finite career of a pitcher who is already on the wrong side of 25.

"But Travis, don't most rookies struggle to make the transition to the major leagues? Will Nelson really be better than Estrada over the rest of the season? What about regression?"

@BuckysBCCo This isn't some sort of stupid blind faith thing. Wily Peralta was "ready" last year, too, and had a 5.58 ERA in first 3 months.

— J.P. Breen (@JP_Breen) June 23, 2014

Oh, I'll feed you baby birds. Yes, let's take a look at those first three months with the Brewers from Wily last year, he's Player B above. Looks an awful lot like Marco's numbers so far this year, doesn't it? Obviously a higher WHIP for Peralta, but that's offset by Wily's ability to keep the ball in the park. So even if Jimmy Nelson does struggle to make the transition to the big leagues, it's hard to imagine a scenario where he's worse than Marco has been this year. 

However, I don't think that's going to happen, which brings us to Player D, which is Peralta's final year at AAA Nashville in 2012. The Brewers had a serious lack of pitching depth last year, which forced Wily into the starting rotation with the big league club when he could probably have benefited from a bit more seasoning in the minors. You can try comparing his numbers to Jimmy's this season, but you'll just start drooling, so maybe go get some bacon instead. We've seen what Peralta has become just one short year later, and I expect similar results from Nelson almost immediately (Peralta is almost exactly one month Nelson's senior). 

Pictured: The Brewers' bullpen dragging Wang (middle) to
the expanded roster finish line on Sept. 1.

Verdict: Marco has had long enough to try to turn his season back around, and it's no longer fair to Nelson (or to the poor hitters in the PCL that are forced to face him) to keep in the minors any longer. It's time to #FreeJimmyNelson. Marco can try to get his groove back in the Brewers' bullpen, making Mike Fiers the latest undeserved casualty to the Wei-Chung Wang experiment (68 days until September 1st!). 

*If you care to know which numbers I'm referring to, I'm looking at a .246 BABIP, which indicates quite a bit of luck (the league average is around .300), and an FIP of around 4.90 (estimated), which pointed to the regression that we're currently seeing.