MLB Halfway Hardware and Second Half Predictions

The Brewers have hit the halfway point, and at 49-32 have the best record after 81 games in franchise history. Certainly this is good news, but it's also important to note that the previous record holders (George Bamberger's 1979 team and Ned Yost's 2007 team were both 47-34) both failed to reach the playoffs, so the job isn't done. With the best record in the National League and a 5.5 game lead over the second place Cardinals, however, it certainly is hard to imagine how this team could manage not to at least grab a wild card spot now. Here's how I'm handing out the hardware for the Crew through the official halfway point:

Brewers MVP: Jonathan Lucroy

This is an obvious choice. Lucroy leads the team in batting average, on-base percentage and OPS, and is among the team leaders in RBI and games played (the latter very impressive for a catcher). His WAR of 3.8 is first on the team and third in the National League.

With apologies to: Carlos Gomez, Kyle Lohse

Brewers Cy Young: Lohse

This one is a tough one, but I'll lean toward Lohse, who has emerged as the stopper on a team that lacks a true "ace". He's posted a quality start in 12 out 16 appearances, and he's also the team leader in innings pitched, an important stat for a team with a bullpen handcuffed to Wei-Chung Wang that separates him from Yovani Gallardo. He is tied with Wily Peralta for the team lead in ERA and wins, the latter which ranks them both a tied for third in the National League.

With apologies to: Gallardo, Peralta, Will Smith

Brewers Newcomer of the Year: Will Smith and Zach Duke

The Fresh Prince and his Slider of Death have been absolutely dominant all year, as has Pirate-zombie Duke. You could also just name this award the Rolaids relief pitcher award but it would look the same.. The Brewers pair of dominant lefties sport ERAs of 1.43 and 1.44 respectively, and both have K/9 rates over 11. Smith has been used a bit more in higher leverage situations (he has 19 holds to Duke's 7), but Duke's been much stingier with the free passes (5 to Smith's 16).

With apologies to: No one. This isn't close, sorry Mark Reynolds.

Now I'm going to share here my preseason picks here to see how I'm doing so far, and make any mid-season adjustments I feel are necessary. If that's cheating then shut up it's my blog I do what I want with it.

Pictured: The Rays 2014 Season

AL East:

1) Tampa Bay

2) Baltimore

3) Boston

4) New York

5) Toronto

Grade: F

This is basically the exact opposite of what's happened. I've got Baltimore in the right spot, but I flipped the first and last place teams. My Tampa Bay predictions get worse, stay tuned.

Revised:

1) Baltimore

2) Toronto

3) New York

4) Boston

5) Tampa Bay

A lot of media outlets are high on the Yankees' chances to take this suddenly very weak division, which makes since because media outlets always love the Yankees. The sport a dismal -34 run differential, however, that is good for 7th worst in the majors, so I'm not sold that they'll be able to climb back into the race. If Toronto can find a top-tier pitcher to bolster their rotation, I think they've got a shot to stave off the Orioles.

AL Central:

1) Cleveland

2) Kansas City

3) Detroit

4) Chicago

5) Minnesota

Grade: B-. This looked a lot better a week ago before the Tigers ripped off seven straight while the Royals and Indians struggled.

Revised:

1) Detroit

2) Kansas City

3) Cleveland

4) Chicago

5) Minnesota

It looks like we're getting status quo again in the Central. The Royals are improved and could catch the Tigers, but we've been saying that for years and Detroit has postseason experience that will carry them through to a fourth straight division title.

AL West:

1) Oakland

2) Los Angeles*

3) Seattle*

4) Texas

5) Houston

Grade: A+. #NailedIt

No Revisions. I saw the Texas collapse coming a mile away, and Seattle has obviously made some splashy improvements to their offense. I had both wild cards coming out of this division, and that remains the call as well: Oakland, Los Angeles and Seattle have the three best run differentials in all of baseball.

That smile says, "I'm better than you,
 and I know it."

AL Awards:

MVP: Mike Trout, LAA

Cy Young: David Price, TB

ROY: Yordano Ventura, KC

Grade: C. Trout is running away with the MVP, but Price has been good-but-not-great. Ventura is probably fourth in a stacked AL Rookie of the Year race behind Masahiro Tanaka of the Yankees, Jose Abreu of the White Sox and George Springer of the Astros.

Revisions:

MVP: Trout

Cy Young: Felix Hernandez, SEA

ROY: Tanaka

I don't want to hear about Josh Donaldson or Edwin Encarnacion, so just stop. Trout is the best baseball player alive and it isn't close. Tanaka is not only your clear favorite for Rookie of the Year, he's also neck and neck with King Felix for the Cy Young.

NL East:

1) Washington

2) Atlanta

3) Miami

4) New York

5) Philadelphia

Grade: A. But for a Philly win and a New York loss last night, I nailed this one too. I didn't necessarily think the Marlins would be a .500 team without Jose Fernandez, but I'll take it anyway.

No Revisions. I like what I've done here. The first two divisions were rough, but I'm starting to heat up.

NL Central:

1) St. Louis

2) Milwaukee*

3) Cincinnati

4) Pittsburgh

5) Chicago

Grade: B+. I got killed in the preseason for being a "homer" and putting the Crew in second place and giving them a wild card spot. Turns out I did get that wrong, but I'm totally okay with that. Other than that, I nailed this. I definitely saw the regression coming from the Pirates, and I didn't think Cincinnati would be able to score as easily with the loss of Choo.

No Revisions. Unfortunately, I do see the Cardinals getting hot at some point and catching the Crew, despite my undying allegiance to the Brewers and the ever-burning hatred that rages on in my heart for the Cardinals. The mere fact that the Cardinals sent a scout to watch David Price this week caused me to uncontrollably wet myself with terror. I still like Milwaukee for a wild card, obviously.

NL West:

1) Los Angeles

2) Arizona*

3) San Fransisco

4) San Diego

5) Colorado

Grade: C-. Everything looks pretty good, except what in the blue hell happened to the Diamondbacks? I picked them for a wild card spot, and instead they're buried in the cellar with the worst run differential in the league.

Revisions:

1) Los Angeles

2) San Fransisco

3) Colorado

4) Arizona

5) San Diego

Colorado has surprised with their bats, even considering the airy confines of Coors Field. Obviously, I'm also dropping the D-Backs toward the bottom, though I have a feeling they'll at least catch San Diego and their historically bad offense.

NL Awards:

MVP: Paul Goldschmidt, ARI

Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw, LAD

ROY: Archie Bradley, ARI

Grade: D. Goldschmidt has been fine but he's on a last place team, and Bradley has yet to make an appearance in the bigs this year. Kershaw missed some time and doesn't have the eye-popping ERA of Cueto, but I suspect his track record, the no-hitter, his team's performance and his presence in the Los Angeles market keeps him in the race.

Revisions:

MVP: Jonathan Lucroy, MIL

Cy Young: Kershaw

ROY: Billy Hamilton, CIN

Troy Tulowitzki has obviously been on an absolute tear and probably deserves the award, but the writers are traditionally loathe to hand out the MVP hardware to a guy on a team that's not at least in contention for a playoff spot (The Rox currently sit at 35-44, 7.5 games out of the second wild card spot). Plus, whatever go Brewers and it would make me smile a lot to see Luc win the award the same year my grandmother, who absolutely hated him for no reason, passed away. I didn't believe in the Billy Hamilton hype, but after a rough April he's separated himself from a sparce NL rookie field. With apologies to Jonny Cueto and (gag) Adam Wainwright, Kershaw is stil the best pitcher on the planet.

It says here Cespedes and the A's are your World Champions

Playoffs:

National League

Wild Cards: Milwaukee over Arizona

Divisional Round: Dodgers over Milwaukee, Washington over St. Louis

Championship: Dodgers over Washington

Revisions:

Wild Cards: Milwaukee over San Fransisco

Divisional Round: Dodgers over Milwaukee, St. Louis over Washington

Championship: Dodgers over St. Louis

American League

Wild Cards: Los Angeles over Seattle

Divisional Round: Tampa Bay over Los Angeles, Oakland over Cleveland

Championship: Tampa Bay over Oakland

Revisions:

Wild Cards: Los Angeles over Seattle

Divisional Round:  Los Angeles over Baltimore, Oakland over Detroit

Championship: Oakland over Los Angeles

World Series

Tampa Bay over Los Angeles in 7

Revision:

Oakland over Los Angeles in 7

I told you it got worse with the Rays. Yes, that's right. The team I picked to win the World Series at the beginning of the year has the worst record in all of baseball. To be fair, I wasn't alone, but it's still embarrassing. Going forward, I like the Athletics to raise the trophy this year. They've been absolutely dominant, with a run differential (+129!!!) that is more than twice that of the next best team.