Wednesday, March 23, 2011

2011 MLB Preview Part 1: NL East

Here comes part one of an (at least) seven part preview of the 2011 Major League Baseball season, which will bring us right up to Opening Day. We'll start today in the National League East.

1) Philadelphia Phillies
What to like: You can start with a starting rotation that contains three potential Hall of Famers (Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt and Cliff Lee) and a World Series MVP (Cole Hamels). It just might be the greatest rotation of all time. If pitching is not your thing, then you can take an infield with a combined 12 All-Star selections which anchors a lineup that finished second in the league in runs scored last year.

What not to like: The middle of the lineup could struggle against left-handers after the departure of outfielder Jayson Werth (we'll visit him and his albatross contract later). And the Phillie Phanatic is the most obnoxious-looking mascot in professional sports.

Outlook: With the best pitching staff in baseball and a murderers row in the middle of the lineup, the Phillies are the favorites in the National League to reach the World Series.

Key player: Halladay. As Doc goes, so go the Phillies. The most dominant (clean) pitcher of his generation, Halladay gives the Phillies the ability to throw a W on the board like clockwork every five days.

X-factor: Chase Utley, 2B. Utley's knee has been one of Spring Training's biggest stories, and also one of its greatest mysteries. Luis Castillo, recently cut by the Mets, has been signed in case Utley misses significant time. The second baseman's health (or lack thereof) is the biggest question mark for the early World Series favorites.

Notable additions: Lee

Notable subtractions: Werth

2) Atlanta Braves
What to like: The Braves starting rotation, led by rising star Tommy Hanson and veterans Derek Lowe and Tim Hudson, is the best the team has had since the turn-of-the-century Braves that boasted Greg Maddux, John Smoltz and Tom Glavine. Sophomore outfielder Jason Heyward, who finished second in Rookie of the Year voting last year, is ready to make the leap to superstardom and, with the help of newly acquired Dan Uggla, will bolster the new look middle of the lineup for the Braves.

What not to like: Chipper Jones turns 39 in April, and his production has been declining steadily for years, so the Braves will need to find someone else to make their lineup tick. Hudson and Jurrjens have been two of baseball's luckiest pitchers the last two years in terms of BABIP (batting average on balls in play), and their production may take an unpleasant turn toward normalcy. They also lost two keys to their bullpen in Takashi Saito and Billy Wagner.

Outlook: With the East's best pitching staff outside of Pennsylvania, the Braves are primed to compete for 90 wins and the NL wild card.

Key player: Hanson and Heyward. The Braves two blue-chip prospects are rookies no more, and they must now take their places as leaders of the pitching staff and lineup, respectively. If these two experience even the modest improvement expected of most MLB rookies, the Braves will be a force to be reckoned with for years.

X-factor: Nate McLouth, CF. The 2008 All-Star selection was a huge disappointment in 2010, batting .190 with an on-base percentage under .300 and just 24 RBI. Acquired in a trade with the Pirates in the middle of 2009, the Braves hope to see some improvement from their center fielder in 2011.

Notable additions: Uggla, LHP George Sherrill

Notable subtractions: Wagner, Saito, 1B Derrick Lee, INF Omar Infante

3) Florida Marlins
What to like: Starting pitcher Josh Johnson is a bona fide ace, having posted the National League's lowest ERA last season (2.30). He leads a staff loaded with talent who have underperformed in recent years, but each has shown potential to be an above average pitcher in the big leagues. The Marlins lineup, led by firecracker Hanley Ramirez, is young and talented, and has potential for improvement.

What not to like: Aside from Johnson, the starting five is filled with pitchers whose best years may be behind them: Javier Vasquez had a disastrous year in New York while Ricky Nolasco and Anibal Sanchez both took significant steps backward after early career success. The lineup is led by Ramirez, whose character has come into question since signing a six-year, $70 million deal in 2009, and is young and inexperienced, so it may experience some growing pains.

Outlook: The Marlins are young and have talent, but they're likely a couple years away from catching the Phillies and Braves and competing for a playoff spot. They'll have to settle for being the best of the rest in the NL East.

Key player: Ramirez. The Marlins young superstar is one of the best shortstops in baseball and has shown a flair for the dramatic. Unfortunately, it seems his favorite kind of drama is the kind that causes problems in the dugoout. He is a dynamite hitter and an above average talent in the field, but the Marlins need him to take on a bigger role as a leader in the clubhouse.

X-factor: Nolasco, Sanchez and Vasquez. The middle of the Marlins rotation is the key to their success this season. If any or all of them can regain the form they've shown earlier in their careers, the Marlins could compete for the wild card. If not, they'll be competing to stay out of the NL East cellar.

Notable additions: Vasquez, C John Buck, INF Omar Infante

Notable subtractions: Uggla

4) New York Mets
What to like: On paper, the Mets have one of the National League's most potent lineups, especially if this was 2008. Big bats like 3B David Wright, OF Jason Bay, SS Jose Reyes and OF Carlos Beltran can't possibly be as bad as they were last year again. They've also dispatched with Luis Castillo and Oliver Perez, two of former GM Omar Minaya's most egregious contracts.

What not to like: They still owe Luis Castillo and Oliver Perez over $15 million combined, so if the lineup isn't able to return to its former glory, they don't have the money to sign help; unfortunately, the lineup has more question marks than the Riddler's outfit. The underwhelming starting rotation, apart from injured Johan Santana, is filled with average talent and lacks a true ace without Santana.

Outlook: Unless the lineup shows dramatic improvement over last year, when they were 13th in the league in runs scored, its going to be a long summer for fans of New York's other baseball club. While the rest of the division seems to be taking big leaps forward, the Mets are trending down.

Key player: Reyes and Wright. Both Wright and Reyes snapped back from down/injury-plagued years in 2009 to have great years in 2010. There is absolutely zero room for regression for these two if the Mets want to compete this year.

X-factor: Santana. The Mets ace is out until at least late June as he recovers from shoulder surgery, and his status for returning at all this season is up in the air. If he can return, and in the same form as he was when he was winning Cy Youngs in Minnesota, he can be a big boost for this club.

Notable additions: LHP Chris Capuano

Notable subtractions: Castillo

5) Washington Nationals
What to like: The Nationals off-season acquisition of Jayson Werth, as well as their pursuit of Cliff Lee, shows that the brass in Washington is committed to putting a winning product on the field. A young core that includes 3B Ryan Zimmerman, OF Nyger Morgan and a host of prospects shows promise for the future.

What not to like: The preposterous money the Nationals threw at Werth (7 years, $126 million) will put Washington in a hole financially as they try to finally climb out of the NL East cellar. It isn't 2013 yet. Steven Strasburg is drawing a lot of horrifying comparisons to Mark Pryor, and Bryce Harper's face paint make him look like an idiot.

Outlook: The future is very bright for the Nationals, but with the injured Strasburg likely to miss the entire season and Bryce Harper still a year or two from making an impact on the big league squad, Washington fans will have to wait a couple more years before the Nats are contenders.


Key player: Werth. It is imperative on the Nats biggest off-season acquisition to prove the Nationals didn't grossly overpay for him. If he can maintain the level of play he displayed in Philadelphia, perhaps he can prove the Nationals only overpaid a little bit for the one-time All-Star.

X-Factor: Strasburg. If he can return to the big league club at all this season (and avoid a setback or another injury), it will be a huge relief to a fan base that had its heart ripped out by the chosen one's roaring start followed by his devastating injury.

Notable additions: Werth, 1B Adam LaRoche, OF Rick Ankiel

Notable subtractions: 1B Adam Dunn, OF Josh WIllingham, 2B Adam Kennedy

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